The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the El Niño climate pattern is likely to return by mid-2026, potentially triggering a cascade of disruptions to agriculture and food systems around the world. According to WMO climate scientist Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, there is high confidence that El Niño conditions will not only emerge between May and July but intensify in the months that follow, with early signals — including rising sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean — already pointing to a particularly strong event, possibly the most powerful in a decade.
El Niño is a naturally occurring periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that reshapes wind and rainfall patterns globally. It typically brings heavier rainfall to southern South America and the Horn of Africa, while causing drought conditions across Australia, Indonesia, and much of Southeast Asia. Japan's weather bureau currently puts the probability of emergence at 70%, while China's climate officials fear the pattern could persist until the end of 2026. India is bracing for below-average monsoon rainfall for the first time in three years, with forecasts suggesting precipitation could fall to just 70–90% of the long-term average — raising the prospect of severe drought conditions by August and September, with knock-on effects for summer crops such as rice, cotton, and soybeans, as well as winter crops including wheat.
The agricultural stakes are considerable. In Australia — the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter and second-largest canola supplier — farmers in New South Wales and Queensland have already been forced to scale back planting following months of low rainfall. "Our season has completely collapsed," said Pat Ryan, a crop and cattle farmer near Merriwa in New South Wales. Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia, which together dominate global supply, could decline by 5–12% if the event proves strong and prolonged. In China, the world's largest importer of farm products, the main risk is flooding in southern regions, which could damage rice and vegetable crops.
The threat arrives at a particularly difficult moment for global agriculture. A joint report by the FAO and the WMO, published this week under the title "Extreme Heat and Agriculture," warned that escalating heat episodes are already pushing food production systems "to the limit," threatening the health and livelihoods of more than one billion people and causing 500 billion working hours to be lost annually in the agricultural sector. Yields for most crops begin to decline above 30°C, with even lower thresholds for potatoes and barley. Livestock suffer cardiovascular and digestive stress, with reductions in milk output and protein content. Morocco, for example, saw cereal yields fall by 40% after six consecutive years of drought compounded by historic heat waves in 2023 and 2024. Compounding the outlook further, disruptions to fertilizer supplies linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran — which is affecting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for roughly 30% of global urea trade — risk pushing farmers to reduce fertilizer use precisely when crops are most vulnerable.
While El Niño is a natural cycle occurring every two to seven years and is not caused by climate change, scientists stress that global warming amplifies its effects. The WMO has linked the combination of the previous El Niño and human-driven warming to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. Both the WMO and FAO are calling for accelerated investment in early warning systems, heat-adapted crop varieties, and resilient livestock breeds, while stressing that preparedness alone cannot substitute for broader climate action. "Building resilience is essential, but it cannot replace decisive climate action," the FAO-WMO report concludes.