Iceland will hold a referendum on 29 August on whether to resume European Union accession talks, after the country's parliament approved the move with 34 votes in favour, eight against and 14 abstentions. The vote will not ask Icelanders directly whether they want to join the EU, but whether they want their government to restart negotiations with the bloc — a two-step approach designed to ease voters into a complex and divisive question. If the answer is yes and a deal is subsequently reached, a second referendum on the final terms of membership would follow.

Iceland, a North Atlantic island nation of around 370,000 people, first applied for EU membership in 2009 at the height of a severe financial crisis. Accession talks were frozen in 2013 when a eurosceptic government took office, and in 2015 Reykjavik formally asked to be removed from the list of candidate countries. The renewed push has been driven by a combination of factors: rising living costs, the war in Ukraine, and growing geopolitical unease — particularly US threats to acquire Greenland, Iceland's closest neighbour. Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir said the shift in the international order had made the question of EU membership more urgent. "The world has changed so decisively," she said, adding that old alliances were being tested and trade used as a "political weapon." The referendum, originally planned for no later than 2027, was brought forward by roughly two years in response to these developments.

Despite already having close ties with the EU — Iceland is part of the Schengen Area, which means no border controls with EU member states — public opinion remains sharply divided. A recent survey conducted for the foreign ministry found 42% of Icelanders in favour of resuming accession talks and 39% opposed. Fishing is expected to be the most contentious issue, both as a major export industry and as a cornerstone of Icelandic identity. Agriculture and sovereignty concerns are also prominent among those opposed to membership.

The foreign minister has warned that the referendum risks being derailed by misinformation, foreign interference and the misuse of artificial intelligence, describing her fear of a "Brexit moment" in which distorted or false information shapes the outcome. She accused some domestic political actors of drawing on tactics associated with hardline eurosceptic campaigns in the UK. Iceland's president, Halla Tómasdóttir, separately cautioned that AI tools could rapidly produce misleading content that appears credible, while an AI researcher at the University of Iceland warned that many voters seeking information about the referendum may be relying on AI models that draw on unreliable sources. The prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, has said foreign influence in the vote "will not be tolerated, whether from the European Union, China, Russia or the United States."

The tight polling figures and the charged information environment make the outcome genuinely uncertain. Political scientists note that the two-stage process may reassure undecided voters, since a yes vote in August commits Iceland only to talks, not to membership itself. Should negotiations prove successful, Gunnarsdóttir has suggested Iceland could potentially join the EU as early as 2028.