Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is heading into October's presidential election with a strengthened political position, as a series of US tariffs and Washington's overt support for his opponent have ignited a surge of nationalist sentiment among Brazilian voters. The incumbent left-wing president, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, faces Flávio Bolsonaro — senator and son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting to overturn his 2022 election defeat. A recent Quaest poll for Folha de S.Paulo showed Lula leading Flávio 45 percent to 37 percent in a potential second-round run-off. Brazil holds its first-round vote on October 4, with a run-off scheduled for October 25 if needed.
The Trump administration last week imposed 25 percent tariffs on a range of Brazilian goods, citing what it called "unreasonable" Brazilian trade practices — including favouring the state-run Pix payment system, used by more than 90 percent of Brazilians, over private competitors, levying tariffs on US ethanol, and allegedly lax enforcement of deforestation laws. An earlier round of tariffs had been linked to the criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro, which Trump had called a "witch-hunt." Washington also designated Brazil's two largest criminal factions, the PCC and Comando Vermelho, as foreign terrorist organisations — a move Flávio had personally lobbied for, but which Lula condemned as a threat to Brazilian sovereignty.
Lula has cast himself as the defender of Brazil against foreign interference, a framing that analysts say is resonating across the political spectrum. "His political movement is afraid that tariffs actually strengthen Lula's support, because Brazilians are very disgusted with the US imposing tariffs," said Gimena Sanchez of the Washington Office on Latin America. Even traditionally conservative business sectors — including manufacturing and agribusiness, which backed Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022 — have grown more cautious given the economic uncertainty Trump's tariff policy generates. Political scientist Patricio Navia of New York University noted that Brazilians broadly resent external interference: "When they see President Trump trying to meddle with Brazilian elections, even right-wing Brazilians are not very pleased."
In a tactical shift, Lula has recently begun directing his attacks not at Trump himself but at US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has openly criticised Brazil's Supreme Court, defended US sanctions on Brazilian officials, and cultivated close ties with the Bolsonaro family. At a rally hosted by the PDT, a centre-left ally party, Lula challenged Rubio directly: "If the American Secretary of State wants to come and support my opponent, let him come! Let him set up his campaign committee! We will defeat them all in the name of defending democracy in Brazil." Analysts note that targeting Rubio rather than Trump reflects diplomatic prudence — if re-elected, Lula will need to manage relations with the Trump administration for two more years.
The Bolsonaro family's legal and political difficulties compound the challenge. Eduardo Bolsonaro, Jair's third son, was convicted in June by a Brazilian Supreme Court panel of lobbying the US to interfere in his father's trial, receiving a sentence of four years and two months. Flávio, meanwhile, faces domestic scrutiny over reports he sought around 24 million dollars from a jailed financier to fund a film about his father, a request he acknowledged but denied was improper. Flávio has asked Washington to delay the new tariffs until after the election, arguing they hand Lula a political gift. Lula dismissed the appeal as "yet another act of treason against the Fatherland." As Brazilian geopolitics analyst Gustavo Blum put it, the Bolsonaro family "hasn't been able to use the connection with Trump with success" — a failure that may prove decisive come October.