Nearly 100 days after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the wider ocean — through which roughly 20 per cent of the world's oil and gas normally flows — remains largely blocked to commercial traffic. With hundreds of vessels still anchored in the Persian Gulf and US-Iran negotiations yielding little visible progress, experts warn that the worst economic consequences may still be ahead, even as global markets have so far absorbed the shock better than many feared.

The disruption has already triggered an energy crisis across Asia. Countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, which depend on the strait for 60 to 75 per cent of their crude oil imports, are experiencing acute shortages. In Thailand, people have been instructed to work from home to cut fuel consumption; Sri Lanka has introduced rationing at petrol stations and shifted to charcoal in place of gas. South Korea limited public-sector workers to driving on alternate days, while Japan has leaned heavily on domestic reserves. China, whose imports once relied on the Gulf for around 40 per cent of its oil, has diversified toward Russia, Central Asia and the United States, and briefly halted Gulf imports altogether for several weeks. In the United States, the national average for a gallon of petrol stands at around $4.25, with California — whose tight refining regulations and forced dependence on imported fuel have made it unexpectedly vulnerable — averaging around $6. European airlines, meanwhile, face pressure on jet fuel supplies.

The most overlooked consequence, analysts say, is the impact on fertiliser. The Gulf region supplied roughly one third of the world's traded fertiliser, which is processed from natural gas. With liquefied natural gas also blocked, the blow is twofold: prices have surged and supplies have simply disappeared for many buyers, striking at a critical moment in the planting season. Since fertiliser underpins roughly half of global food production, the ripple effects are profound. The United Nations has warned that between 45 million and more than 100 million people could face hunger if the disruption continues, with early signs already visible in African countries and Afghanistan. A UN special task force has cautioned that without an immediate solution, the crisis will be