Ethiopia went to the polls on Monday, June 1, as some 50 million registered voters were called to elect the 547 members of the federal House of Representatives — who will in turn select the country's next prime minister. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's ruling Prosperity Party, which currently holds more than 96 percent of seats in the outgoing parliament, is widely expected to win a landslide victory and secure Abiy another five-year term. Facing a fragmented and weakened opposition, and with campaign activity notably muted — fewer public rallies, little door-to-door outreach — the election is being watched closely by rights groups and international observers.

The vote takes place against a backdrop of serious and ongoing security crises. Elections will not be held in the northern Tigray region, as they were not in 2021, due to what electoral authorities describe as unfavourable conditions. Although the Pretoria Peace Agreement ended the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray war — which killed at least 600,000 people — tensions have sharply re-escalated in recent months. Direct clashes between federal troops and Tigrayan forces occurred in January, the first since the ceasefire. In April, the TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front) reconstituted its pre-war regional parliament, a move dismissed as illegitimate by Addis Ababa, deepening the political impasse. More than 750,000 people displaced by the war remain in camps across the region, which has also been under a near-total economic blockade since early 2026. Voting is also suspended in at least eight constituencies in the neighbouring Amhara region, where conflict between federal forces and Fano militias has persisted since 2023, with documented civilian massacres and drone strikes on populated areas.

Human rights organisations have raised sweeping concerns about the conditions under which the election is being held. The UN's International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia found that war crimes and crimes against humanity — including mass murder, sexual violence, and torture — were committed during the Tigray conflict, yet no accountability process has followed. In the Oromia region, clashes between federal forces and the Oromo Liberation Army continue, and a senior Oromo opposition figure was killed in April 2024 under unclear circumstances. Rights groups document the systematic targeting of journalists — at least 54 have been forced into exile since 2020 — and the harassment and expulsion of human rights defenders. In March 2025, 41 countries issued a joint statement citing serious human rights concerns and calling for a stalled transitional justice process to be implemented.

Abiy's political trajectory has been one of sharp contrasts. When he came to power in 2018, he released political prisoners, amended repressive laws, and normalised relations with Eritrea — achievements that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. In his birthplace of Beshasha, a small town of around 8,000 people in the Oromia region, he remains a revered figure. Residents point to new roads, housing, and a library as tangible evidence of his government's impact. As the first Oromo — Ethiopia's largest but historically marginalised ethnic group — to lead the country, his symbolic significance to many voters remains powerful. Opposition voices, however, argue that ethnic-based politics has caused lasting damage to national cohesion, and that the Prosperity Party's structural advantages make genuinely competitive elections impossible.

Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous country and one of its largest economies, sits at a critical juncture. The election, formally a milestone in democratic transition, is being held while active conflicts continue in multiple regions and fundamental freedoms — of expression, assembly, and political participation — remain curtailed. International observers and rights advocates argue that casting ballots alone cannot constitute a free and fair election under such conditions, and have called on the international community to press Addis Ababa for concrete steps toward reconciliation, accountability, and the release of political prisoners.