Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party by 39% to 34% for the October 4 first round, according to a Quaest poll, while the two are tied at 42% in a likely October 25 runoff. A separate Nexus poll shows Lula ahead 42% to 37% in the first round and 46% to 44% in a runoff, within its margin of error. With neither candidate near the majority of valid votes needed to win outright, the race looks headed to a second round, as Lula's new nationwide ban on online betting (backed by 62% of Brazilians in Quaest's poll) draws accusations of electioneering from Bolsonaro.