Spain's National Intelligence Centre (CNI) warned both Spanish and Moroccan authorities of plans for a mass migrant crossing into the enclave of Ceuta just one day before more than 72,000 people entered the territory, according to a tranche of declassified government documents released on Wednesday. The disclosures have intensified political pressure on Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez over his government's handling of one of Spain's most severe border crises in recent memory.

Ceuta is a small Spanish autonomous city on the northern coast of Africa, bordering Morocco, with a population of around 84,000. On 30 and 31 July, tens of thousands of migrants and asylum seekers crossed into the enclave, most by swimming around the border fence separating it from Morocco. At least 100 to 141 people died during the crossings, according to local figures, and although most who entered returned to Morocco, between 5,000 and 10,000 people remain — sleeping in makeshift camps, on streets and on beaches — prompting near-daily protests among Ceuta's residents.

The 40 declassified documents show that on 29 July, the CNI sent a WhatsApp message to the Spanish government's delegation in Ceuta warning of social media calls — reaching groups with around 180,000 followers — urging migrants to cross the border the following day. "Whoever wants to cross has the last chance on Throne Day at 8. The authorities will be distracted with the celebrations and parades," read one of the messages cited in CNI communications. Morocco's Throne Day, celebrated on 30 July, was identified as a key moment the crossing would exploit. On the same day, the CNI also sent an urgent note to Morocco's intelligence agencies, the DGST and DGED, warning of the planned crossing by sea and over the fence. A separate internal Defence Ministry document, dated from around 25 July, noted that a migration crisis was already developing and that available information pointed to further large-scale arrivals "in the very short term."

Despite the warnings, Sánchez insisted the documents did not constitute a foreseeable alert of events on the scale that followed. "The existence of this campaign was known and was being monitored, but in no way did it constitute an indicator of the scale, nature, or probability of what happened afterward," he wrote. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares echoed that position, saying he was "not aware of any report that might have foreseen the magnitude of what happened on July 30." The CNI's own midday assessment on 30 July, as the crisis unfolded, described Moroccan authorities as acting in a "negligent and passive manner" rather than actively encouraging the wave — a nuance Sánchez has leaned on to push back against claims of Moroccan complicity, despite a leaked police report that alleged "total permissiveness" from Moroccan officers on the ground.

Opposition parties have seized on the declassified material. "The government knew everything that was happening. They had the information. They are directly responsible," said Ester Muñoz, spokeswoman for the conservative People's Party. The far-right Vox party called for Sánchez to face the Supreme Court on treason charges. The crisis has drawn international attention too: the European Commission pledged nearly €115 million to help Spain manage the situation. Madrid has also committed around $357 million in aid to Ceuta, where the influx has strained infrastructure and deepened tensions between residents and those who remain.