Houthi rebels in Yemen have seized Mayun Island — also known as Perim Island — a strategically critical landmass sitting in the narrowest part of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, the waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The capture, announced on 13 September 2026, follows the rebels' recent seizure of the port city of Mokha and gives the Iran-backed militia effective dominance over one of the world's most important shipping lanes. The island divides the strait into two channels, providing whoever controls it enormous leverage over vessels passing between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Roughly 12 percent of global goods trade flows through Bab al-Mandeb under normal conditions.

The strategic consequences for Saudi Arabia are severe. Since Iran began disrupting the Strait of Hormuz — the Persian Gulf's main export artery — earlier this year following a US-Israeli strike on Iran in February, Riyadh had rerouted much of its oil exports westward through Bab al-Mandeb and onward via Egypt's SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal to European markets. That escape route is now under direct threat. Saudi oil exports to Asia have already collapsed dramatically, falling from around 3.4 million barrels per day in June to just 128,000 in August, before recovering partially to around 700,000 in September, according to trade monitor Kpler. Compounding the crisis, Saudi Arabia has also shut down its trans-Arabian pipeline — which carries oil from eastern fields to Red Sea terminals — after drone attacks blamed on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

Beyond its geopolitical value to Iran and its allies, the Houthi advance is also driven by financial incentives the group has cultivated over years. The militia has built a shadow economy through port control, smuggling networks, and taxation of trade flowing through territory it holds, reportedly generating as much as $3.7 billion in 2023, according to analysis by the Mokha Center, a Yemeni research institute. Control over Bab al-Mandeb shipping could dramatically expand those revenues — a dynamic that analysts note is creating a paradox for Tehran: the wealthier the Houthis become, the less dependent they are on Iranian support and the harder they are to control, even if Iran wished to restrain them in pursuit of a negotiated settlement.

Saudi Arabia, which fought the Houthis in a costly war beginning in 2015 that killed an estimated 150,000 people before a 2022 ceasefire, now faces what analysts describe as a dilemma with no good options. Renewed military action risks intensifying Houthi strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure, and the rebels' weaponry is considerably more sophisticated than it was a decade ago. A diplomatic solution is complicated by the Houthis' demand that a Saudi-led blockade on their territory be lifted, and by Iran's limited interest in regional de-escalation without major US concessions.