The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed on Thursday that El Niño conditions have officially developed, with scientists warning the phenomenon could become one of the most intense on record since 1950. Early indicators suggest the event may peak toward the end of 2026 and into early 2027, with a 63% probability that it will reach "very strong" intensity — placing it among the largest El Niño events in the modern historical record.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by above-average warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It forms part of a broader cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which shifts every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to twelve months. By altering jet streams and precipitation patterns, El Niño can simultaneously fuel severe storms in some regions while driving damaging drought in others. Scientists note that, because ocean heat releases into the atmosphere gradually, global temperatures often hit their highest point in the year after a strong El Niño peaks. The most recent event, in 2023–24, was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures recorded in 2024, according to World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The geographic impacts are wide-ranging and uneven. Drought and heat are expected across Australia, southern and central Africa, India, Indonesia and parts of the Amazon rainforest. Meanwhile, heavier-than-normal rainfall is forecast for the southern United States, parts of the Middle East and south-central Asia. Colombia's Environment Ministry confirmed the phenomenon arrived roughly three months ahead of schedule, warning that the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific regions face temperature increases, reduced water supplies and deteriorating air quality. The country, which relies heavily on hydroelectric generation, faces a heightened risk of energy rationing as rainfall declines. Colombia's Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies urged authorities and communities to activate contingency plans and strengthen water management.
Scientists and international officials have underscored the severity of what may lie ahead. Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service described the odds as "strongly in favour" of a strong to potentially record-breaking event. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on world leaders to treat the incoming conditions as "an urgent climate warning," warning that "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." Mohamed Adow of the Nairobi-based think tank Power Shift Africa cautioned that for millions of people the forecast represents "failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again."
Experts stress that, while El Niño-driven rainfall could provide some temporary relief to drought-stricken areas such as the American south-west, where reservoirs are at record lows, a single wet season is unlikely to fully reverse years of water deficits — and could itself bring flooding and destruction. Each El Niño is unique, and scientists caution that projections will continue to be refined as Pacific ocean and atmospheric conditions evolve in the months ahead.