Lithuania's prime minister has said his country is ready to "fight back" if attacked by Russia, even as his government quietly prepares contingency evacuation plans for civilians. Mindaugas Sinkevičius told the BBC's Newsnight programme that Lithuanians feel "constantly threatened," pointing to recent drone incursions into the country's airspace as evidence of a concrete and ongoing security challenge. "We will fight back... we will engage," he said, while stressing that planning for "a variety of scenarios" — including moving elderly citizens out of cities safely — does not mean surrender is contemplated.

Lithuania, a small Baltic nation of roughly three million people on the eastern flank of NATO, shares a land border with Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave separated from mainland Russia and sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. The country's vulnerability was underscored last week when NATO fighter pilots shot down a drone that had entered Lithuanian airspace, coming from the direction of Belarus — a close Russian ally. Although the drone's origin has not been officially confirmed, the incident drew an approving response from the UK's Defence Secretary, who praised the "swift and professional actions" of Lithuanian and Italian forces. Moscow offered no comment.

The episode feeds into a broader debate among European intelligence officials about the scale and immediacy of the Russian threat to NATO territory. The head of the Czech Republic's BIS security service, Michal Koudelka, told the Guardian that a limited Russian incursion into NATO-bordering territory could materialise in a matter of "months, not years," potentially involving false-flag provocations or a massive influence campaign. Poland's prime minister, Donald Tusk, echoed these concerns in parliament, warning that Russia may use drones or missiles to test whether NATO's Article 5 collective defence clause is, in his words, "more theoretical than practical." French President Emmanuel Macron called Tusk's warnings "sound and well-documented" and convened an emergency meeting of party leaders in Paris to discuss the threat.

Yet the Baltic states themselves — perhaps counterintuitively, given their proximity to Russia — have urged caution in public messaging. Latvia's state security chief, Normunds Mežviets, said his service sees "no indications of an imminent attack," and Estonia's foreign ministry secretary general publicly warned against "panic on social media," urging citizens to "keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine." Baltic officials fear that amplifying invasion scenarios could destabilise their own societies and economies, and note that Russia's stretched resources in Ukraine limit its options.

What unites these varied assessments is a shared concern that Russia's campaign of sabotage and hybrid pressure on European soil is intensifying regardless of whether a direct military attack materialises. Intelligence chiefs from Sweden, Latvia, and the Czech Republic all pointed to a pattern of escalating incidents — including an armed drone sent to Leipzig airport in Germany, attributed to Russian intelligence — as evidence of a deliberate strategy to erode western resolve and support for Ukraine. For Lithuania's prime minister, the lesson is clear: even a country committed to defending every inch of its territory must plan for the worst. "We face concrete threats," Sinkevičius said. "It's a true reality for us."