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India·Health·Trade & Economy

India's fertility rate drops below replacement level for first time

Tuesday, 9 June 2026, 06:16 · 1 min read

India's total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 children per woman, dipping below the 2.1 replacement threshold needed to sustain a stable population long-term, according to the country's latest Sample Registration System (SRS) demographic survey. Experts attribute the decline to greater access to education and contraception, rising child-rearing costs, and falling infant mortality rates, with sharp regional disparities — southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu recording rates as low as 1.3, while northern states like Bihar remain above replacement at 2.9. The shift carries significant implications for India's workforce and economy, with analysts warning that within decades the country could face labour shortages and an ageing population, while also intensifying political tensions over federal funding and parliamentary seat allocation between the more populous north and the lower-fertility south.

Sources
Al Jazeera EnglishIndia’s fertility rate falls below replacement level: Why it matters ↗︎
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