A convergence of climate disruption and geopolitical pressures is expected to drive up the cost of several everyday foods this winter, with shoppers likely to feel the impact across staples and indulgences alike. Erratic weather driven by El Niño and climate change has cut yields of cocoa, potatoes, wheat, leafy greens, and olives, while international conflicts have pushed up the cost of fuel and fertiliser, compounding losses for farmers. Beyond price rises, manufacturers facing higher input costs may substitute cheaper ingredients — such as replacing cocoa butter with palm oil in chocolate — potentially affecting the nutritional quality and character of products on supermarket shelves.