The United Nations International Maritime Organization (IMO) has temporarily suspended its effort to evacuate hundreds of stranded ships from the Persian Gulf after a cargo vessel was struck by an unknown projectile near the coast of Oman, reigniting concerns about the fragility of an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran. The attack came hours after Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned ships not to use a newly announced shipping corridor running close to Oman's coast, threatening that "violators will be dealt with."

IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez announced the pause to reconfirm that safety guarantees remained in place for vessels on the evacuation list. The targeted ship — identified in reports as the Ever Lovely, flying a Singaporean flag — was not part of the IMO evacuation framework, which had begun operations on Tuesday. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre confirmed the vessel sustained damage to its bridge but reported no casualties or environmental impact. Two unnamed US officials told Reuters that Iran had fired on the ship, though no formal US government statement followed. Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority wrote on X that ships transiting outside Tehran's designated routes "will not be covered by the guarantee of safe passage."

At the heart of the crisis is a dispute over who controls the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that serves as the exit point for roughly a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas. Iran has designated its own routes through the strait, running entirely within its territorial waters and managed by the IRGC-linked Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is under US sanctions. A competing southern corridor, running close to Oman's coast, was announced by Muscat this week in coordination with the IMO and backed by US air cover. The IRGC declared this Omani-aligned route "unacceptable and completely dangerous" as it was established without Iran's knowledge or consent. Iran has also signalled its intention to eventually charge fees for transit — framed as "maritime service fees" — though under the current 60-day interim memorandum of understanding with Washington, ships may pass free of charge.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, wrapping up a three-day tour of the Gulf that included stops in the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, flatly rejected any tolls or fees. "International waterways do not belong to any nation state. This is a foundational principle in the world today, without which the world would be in total chaos," he said at a meeting with foreign ministers of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Rubio also stressed that Washington wants a deal with Iran "but not at any price," warning that any threat to shipping would constitute a serious problem. Oman's foreign minister, Badr Al Busaidi, stated at the same meeting that any future arrangements for the strait would not entail transit fees — a notable clarification given that Oman and Iran had earlier said they were jointly studying potential service costs. GCC ministers, in a joint statement, insisted on "free, unconditional and unrestricted navigation" of the strait and called for Iran's full compliance with its obligations, including halting missile and drone attacks and ending support for regional proxies.

Despite the tensions, shipping data pointed to a gradual, if uneven, recovery. Some 125 vessels transited the strait last week, up from 33 the week before, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence, though that remains well below the pre-war daily average of 130 or more. Oil prices briefly dipped below their last pre-war level of around $73 per barrel, suggesting cautious market optimism. But analysts note that roughly 1,150 merchant vessels with cargo valued at $125 billion remain trapped in the Gulf, and many shipping companies are still waiting for clearer security guarantees before attempting a transit. The IMO evacuation pause, the competing route claims, and continued IRGC warnings underscore what some observers have taken to calling "Schrödinger's strait" — a waterway that is simultaneously open and closed, its status shifting with each day of unresolved diplomacy.