Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a stark warning to international airlines on Tuesday, saying that Russian airspace is becoming "completely dangerous" as Ukraine intensifies its drone operations deep inside Russian territory. Speaking in his nightly video address, Zelenskyy declared that drones will fill Russia's skies "for as long as the war continues," directing his warning specifically at carriers still flying routes through Russian airspace, including to major hubs such as Moscow and St Petersburg. He stressed that Ukraine was not targeting civilian aircraft directly, but warned that the sheer scale of drone activity made commercial aviation in Russian skies untenable.

While the vast majority of Western airlines stopped flying over Russia following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, carriers from China, Turkey and several Gulf states have continued using Russian airspace — a route that offers significant savings in time and fuel on flights between Asia and Europe. Aviation risk advisory firm Osprey Flight Solutions warned clients that although most Ukrainian strikes were likely to occur within 300 kilometres of the border, daily attacks deeper inside Russian territory were "almost certain to continue" and could increase in frequency in the short term. The firm also cautioned that "miscalculation and/or misidentification" remained a realistic risk in the conflict zone.

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded sharply, describing Zelenskyy's remarks as a "declaration of state terrorism" and insisting that Russia would not negotiate with what he called terrorists. Speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes had caused damage to infrastructure inside Russia — including oil refineries — while claiming that only around ten percent of refinery capacity remained in need of repair. He also signalled that Russia was preparing "massive" strikes against Ukrainian power stations, as Russian attacks on Kyiv and surrounding areas have already intensified significantly in recent days, with 12 people killed in strikes on Monday alone.

In Kyiv, the human cost of the escalating conflict is acutely felt. Air raid sirens have sounded almost continuously for days, forcing tens of thousands of residents into metro stations for shelter each time an alert is issued. Analysts note that Russia appears to be exploiting a window in which Ukraine's air defences, particularly against ballistic missiles and fast drones, are stretched thin — and that the intensification may be designed in part to make daily life in the Ukrainian capital unsustainable ahead of another winter. Ukraine has kept its own airspace closed to civilian aircraft since the start of the war.

The exchange of warnings marks a significant escalation in the aerial dimension of the conflict. The risks of civilian aviation operating near active drone corridors are underscored by past tragedies: in 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board — an incident the UN aviation agency later attributed to Russia — and in 2024, a commercial airliner was downed in Russian airspace during a drone interception operation, killing 38 people. Putin apologised to Azerbaijan over the latter incident. Against this backdrop, pressure on airlines still using Russian airspace is now likely to intensify.