The centre-right United List of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs won Latvia's parliamentary election with around 35 percent of the vote, according to results from the election commission, a larger lead than polls had suggested. With 94 percent of polling stations counted, the party stood at 35.4 percent, more than triple its result in the previous election. Kulbergs, who became prime minister in May after the previous coalition collapsed following repeated violations of Latvian airspace by Russian drones, said he had not expected such a result. The outcome points to continuity in Latvia's pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course.

Populist parties also made gains in a campaign shaped by fear of Russia and by domestic economic hardship. Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, came second with about 13 percent, nearly double its 2022 showing. Sovereign Power, which critics describe as pro-Russian and which opposes military aid to Ukraine and higher defence spending, took around 11 to 12 percent. Both are believed to have drawn strongly on Latvia's Russian-speaking minority, which makes up about 35 percent of the population. The left-leaning Progressives followed with roughly 7 percent. Turnout was reported at 51.8 percent.

Kulbergs's current coalition is unlikely to survive in its present form. Of his three partners, the National Alliance (9.1 percent) and New Unity (6.2 percent) are set to enter parliament, while the Union of Greens and Farmers was hovering around the 5 percent threshold in partial counts. Six of the 14 parties and alliances that ran are expected to win seats in the 100-seat Saeima. Kulbergs has said he wants to remain prime minister and has ruled out working with parties he calls pro-Russian, and he specifically named Latvia First. Sovereign Power is widely seen as politically isolated, but analysts say the key question is whether the United List will cooperate with Slesers's party. Coalition talks could be long and complex.

Security dominated the debate in a country that borders Russia and Belarus and was annexed by Moscow for much of the 20th century. Latvia, a member of NATO and the EU since 2004, now spends nearly 5 percent of GDP on defence, among the highest shares in the alliance, and most parties expected in parliament back that level and continued aid to Kyiv. Parties courting Russian-speaking voters downplayed the Russian threat and argued the money should go to social services.

The economy was the other major concern. Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic states, growth is sluggish, and voters complain of high prices, low wages, a strained healthcare system and population decline. Regional gaps are stark: GDP per capita around Riga is near the EU average, but below 50 percent in other regions, including the largely Russian-speaking east. Analysts note that Russian-speaking voters, once united behind the Harmony party, which lost its seats in 2022, increasingly choose on economic rather than identity grounds. That helps explain why populist parties focusing on living costs gained ground even as the country's strategic orientation appears unchanged.