Flávio Bolsonaro, a far-right senator and the eldest son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday. He took 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for the leftist incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and the two will meet in a runoff on 25 October. Flávio received more than 56 million votes, roughly 5 million more than his father won in 2022. Some analysts see the result as an anti-Lula vote rather than a strong preference for Flávio himself.
The weekend also confirmed how far the Bolsonaro family has built a political dynasty. Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, was elected senator for the federal district around Brasília in her first run for office. Carlos Bolsonaro, a former Rio de Janeiro city councillor who was indicted by federal police over a so-called "hate cabinet" accused of spreading fake news, was elected senator for Santa Catarina. Jair Renan, 28, moved up to the lower house of Congress, as did the former president's brother Renato, once nicknamed the "brother who can't win" after repeated defeats. The Liberal Party (PL), Bolsonaro's far-right party, is expected to hold by far the largest bloc in the next Congress. Another son, Eduardo, lost his seat after moving to the United States, where he has lobbied on his father's behalf.
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence, under house arrest, for attempting a coup. Flávio has promised to seek an amnesty for him, and if that fails, to pardon him after taking office on 5 January 2027. Whether the Supreme Court would accept an amnesty is unclear. The Financial Times warned that pursuing his father's release without decisive backing in Congress could trigger a fresh institutional crisis. Swiss daily NZZ noted that few know Flávio's actual government programme, and that Jair would likely remain the most powerful figure in the family. Tensions inside the clan are also visible: Michelle said Flávio had "humiliated" her during the campaign, and he apologised publicly.
The Financial Times argues that the Bolsonaros' revival owes less to Flávio's achievements than to Lula's weaknesses. It points to public security and the rise of drug-trafficking gangs, and to an economy in which unemployment is historically low but high interest rates burden the 82% of households that carry personal debt. A recent scandal involving Supreme Court justices and the jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro of Banco Master also hurt the government, though Lula is not directly linked to it. Flávio had himself sought financing from Vorcaro for a film about his father. Researcher Camila Rocha said many voters see the Bolsonaros as an anti-system force, a "bomb" to blow up Congress and Lula.
International right-wing figures have rallied behind Flávio. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wished him a "great victory", Italy's Matteo Salvini and Argentina's Javier Milei celebrated the result, and Colombian president Abelardo de la Espriella also voiced support. The FT says a Bolsonaro return would crown a run of Trump-aligned victories across Latin America.