Russia is suffering battlefield losses in Ukraine that outpace its ability to recruit replacements by around 6,000 soldiers per month, according to senior western officials. Despite bringing in an estimated 1,000 new recruits daily, Moscow has been unable to offset the combined toll of troops killed and wounded over the past two months — a gap that western governments say is placing growing strain on both the Russian military and the Kremlin's domestic standing.

The assessment paints a picture of a war that has escalated on multiple fronts in 2024. Russia continues to make slow, grinding gains in the eastern Donbas region — a heavily industrialised area of Ukraine that has been a focal point of the conflict since 2014 — but at enormous human cost. In response to battlefield difficulties, President Vladimir Putin has intensified long-range strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, firing more than 360 missiles since early July in what western officials describe as a deliberate attempt to destroy Ukraine's energy grid and break public morale ahead of winter. Ukraine, meanwhile, has struck back with long-range drone and missile attacks deep inside Russian territory, contributing to fuel shortages that officials say are beginning to erode domestic support for the war.

Western governments believe Putin is deliberately avoiding a formal mass mobilisation, calculating that the political and economic costs would be too high. A previous mobilisation in autumn 2022 prompted roughly one million Russians — many of them skilled workers — to flee the country, with fewer than half subsequently returning. Officials also question whether Russia's military could equip and absorb the hundreds of thousands of additional recruits that another such drive would produce.

At the same time, Russia has sharply escalated its rhetoric toward Ukraine's western backers, including threats to target UK military assets and weapons factories. Western officials, however, characterise these warnings as consistent with longstanding Russian doctrine of using hostile language to influence adversaries' decision-making rather than signals of imminent action. Their firm assessment is that Putin wants to avoid direct military confrontation with Nato. Officials nonetheless acknowledge that Russia's ongoing