A surge in bookings for UK domestic holidays is under way this summer, as Britons grow increasingly wary of potential flight cancellations and rising airfares driven by the conflict involving Iran and its impact on global oil supplies. Holiday park operators, caravan firms and resort companies across Britain are reporting sharp increases in demand, with some seeing bookings up by more than 30% compared with last year.

The anxiety stems from a deepening jet fuel crisis triggered by disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a significant share of the world's oil is transported. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled over the past year, reaching nearly $200 per barrel, and the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, has warned that European countries may face fuel shortages within six weeks if supplies are not restored. The International Air Transport Association has cautioned that flight cancellations across Europe could begin as early as the end of May. Airlines including Air Canada, United, Delta and Air France-KLM have already reduced routes or raised fares, while Ryanair's chief executive has noted that Britain is especially exposed because it sources around a quarter of its jet fuel from Kuwait.

For many Britons, the calculation is simple. Jon Hendry Pickup, chief executive of Butlin's — the holiday resort company with sites in Bognor Regis, Minehead and Skegness — noted that the share of guests booking within four weeks of travel has roughly doubled, reflecting a broader reluctance to commit to overseas plans. Jeremy Hipkiss of Landal UK, which operates holiday parks in Cornwall, Scotland and Lincolnshire, said guests are gravitating toward destinations reachable by car or public transport. Cost-of-living pressures compound the picture: travel spending fell 3.3% in March, the first decline since pandemic-era restrictions lifted in 2021, according to Barclays data. A new EU border biometric system, which has caused delays of up to three hours at European entry points, is adding a further deterrent to continental travel.

Despite this, appetite for holidays has not disappeared — it has shifted. Research by the market analysis firm Mintel found that 52% of Britons surveyed plan to holiday at home this year, while 49% still intend to travel abroad. Mintel expects the domestic holiday market to grow by around 7%, reaching close to £14 billion, outpacing a forecast 4.8% rise in the overseas travel market. Travel experts advising international travellers counsel against the "wait-and-see" approach to booking, urging those who do fly to secure flexible tickets and book well in advance, as fares are likely to remain elevated until oil supplies stabilise and the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. For now, the uncertainty is reshaping how and where Britons choose to spend their summers.