Global rice prices have reached their highest point since February 2025, driven by rising energy and transport costs, strong import demand from China and the Philippines, and growing concerns over India's harvest. India (the world's largest rice exporter) is projected to produce its lowest crop in 20 years, with output estimated to fall by around 10 million tonnes — roughly 6% — after monsoon rainfall ran 15% below average since June, with water deficits exceeding 40% in key rice-growing regions. While a short-term shortage is unlikely given India's large strategic reserves and supply from Pakistan, Vietnam, and Thailand, broken rice (a cheaper, fragmented variety used for animal feed and consumed widely in West Africa) is seeing the sharpest price increases, with competition between China and the Philippines potentially squeezing importers such as Senegal, which relies heavily on the product.