A crisis in the Middle East is sending economic shockwaves across Asia, disrupting energy supplies, pushing up food costs, and threatening the livelihoods of millions of people far removed from the conflict itself. At the centre of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea through which nearly half of India's gas imports pass and which normally carries roughly a third of the world's fertilizer supply. Eight weeks into the crisis, the consequences are becoming visible in places as varied as an Indian glassmaking town, a Thai pineapple farm, and the petrol queues of Pakistan.

In Firozabad, a city in India's northern Uttar Pradesh state roughly 50 kilometres from the Taj Mahal that produces 70% of the country's glass, factory owners say losses have reached 25–45% since the conflict began. The city's 400-plus small manufacturing clusters — producing everything from car headlamp covers to decorative chandeliers — rely on a continuous supply of natural gas to keep furnaces burning above 1,000°C. When furnaces cool, they can be permanently damaged. To ration dwindling supplies following a 20% cut in commercial gas allocations by the Indian government, many owners are keeping furnaces running at reduced temperatures while halting production for days at a time. For the estimated 150,000 workers who earn between $5 and $10 a day, the slowdown has already meant fewer working days, withdrawn children from school, and blocked roads as workers protest for higher wages. Economists warn that smaller units, with little working capital, may not survive a prolonged supply disruption.

Across Southeast Asia, the crisis is playing out in the fields. About one-third of the world's fertilizer — largely urea synthesised from Middle Eastern natural gas — is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. With that supply chain disrupted, urea prices have risen as much as 50% above pre-war levels. Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia, and elsewhere who rely on chemical fertilizer for crops including pineapples, palm oil, rice, and rubber are rationing supplies or substituting with less effective alternatives such as chicken manure. Palm oil, present in nearly half of all packaged consumer goods worldwide, is particularly exposed: Indonesia's plantations alone cover an area the size of Florida, and smaller fruit harvests are expected to push up prices across global supply chains. Analysts say shoppers in wealthy countries may not feel the full impact until the first half of 2027, as disruptions travel slowly through supply pipelines.

Elsewhere in Asia, the strain is more immediate. Countries with small strategic reserves and limited financial buffers — including Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines — have been forced into emergency austerity measures. Pakistan has lowered motorway speed limits, Sri Lanka has closed schools on Wednesdays to save energy, and Filipino civil servants have moved to a four-day work week. Analysts at research institutions including The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies warn that the cumulative impact on poorer economies could tip some into recession. Japan, which holds unusually large reserves because it produces no oil or gas domestically, is expected to release more stocks this week, but researchers caution that such releases are short-term relief rather than structural solutions.

The breadth of the disruption underscores how deeply integrated the global economy is with Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. For workers like Umesh Babu, a bangle-maker in Firozabad now down to four working days a week, the geopolitical distance between his workshop and the conflict zone offers little comfort. "If the factories stop hiring us, I don't know what else to do," he said. "This is the only skill I have."