A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is under mounting strain after high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, ended on Saturday without a breakthrough, with each side accusing the other of bad faith and signalling that further escalation remains likely.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament and head of Tehran's delegation, declared that the American team had "failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation" during what local media described as marathon negotiations involving more than 85 Iranian representatives — a figure that reflected the regime's need to show domestic unity across rival factions. Iran's Foreign Ministry said it had never expected a deal after a single day of talks. Hardline lawmakers went further, openly celebrating the absence of an agreement, with some saying Iran had the upper hand militarily. US President Donald Trump, speaking on Fox News on Sunday, took a strikingly different tone, claiming that his earlier warning that "civilisation will die" had been what brought Iran to the table in the first place. "I predict they come back and they give us everything we want," he said.
At the heart of the impasse are two issues Washington considers non-negotiable: the elimination of uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, and an end to Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes. Iran has kept the strait closed to international shipping since the war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign. Tehran shows no sign of yielding on either point. Billboards in Tehran's Revolution Square read "The Strait of Hormuz remains closed," and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the powerful paramilitary force that controls Iran's missile and naval assets, have vowed to respond with full force to any military vessels attempting to transit the waterway. Trump announced on Sunday that the US Navy would begin blockading ships entering or leaving the strait, and said his military was "locked and loaded" to "finish up" Iran at the "appropriate moment."
The domestic political dimension on both sides is shaping the negotiating dynamic. In Tehran, authorities urged pro-government supporters to maintain their presence in city squares and mosques, projecting defiance for a home audience. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not made a public appearance since the war began, communicating only through written statements. Schools and universities have moved online via a restricted internal network as an internet shutdown remains in place and the economy continues to suffer from chronic inflation. In Washington, analysts close to the administration have noted that Trump faces significant political risk: if the conflict is seen as a strategic failure, Republicans could suffer in November's midterm elections. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday to offer continued diplomatic facilitation, underscoring Moscow's interest in shaping any eventual settlement.
Why this matters: The collapse of the Islamabad talks does not mean a return to full-scale fighting — the two-week ceasefire formally remains in place — but it has significantly narrowed the window for diplomacy. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, global oil markets remain exposed to disruption, and both governments face internal pressures that reward confrontation over compromise. Whether a second round of negotiations materialises, and on whose terms, will likely determine the trajectory of a conflict that has already reshaped the Middle East's strategic landscape.