Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows — are showing signs of progress, with senior US officials expressing cautious optimism that an agreement could be reached within days. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed on Tuesday that talks had moved forward, saying "there's been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet," while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come "today or tomorrow." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei described the discussions as "positive" at both technical and political levels, though he stressed that Tehran is negotiating with Oman alone and not directly with Washington.
The emerging framework, as described by regional officials, would establish separate inbound and outbound shipping lanes through the strait — vessels entering the Persian Gulf through an Iran-controlled northern route, and departing via a southern route through Omani territorial waters. However, significant gaps remain. A US official said Washington is committed to restoring the pre-war status quo in which no single party controls transit through the strait, and President Donald Trump reiterated publicly that he would not allow Iran to charge tolls on shipping. Iranian officials, meanwhile, are seeking formal control over inbound traffic and visibility over outbound vessels, along with maritime service fees — conditions that would represent a major strategic gain for Tehran. Oman, which controls the opposite shore of the strait, has been mediating the talks and has not publicly commented on the details.
The diplomatic backdrop is one of mounting pressure on all sides. Iran closed the strait following US and Israeli military strikes in late February that launched what Washington called "Operation Epic Fury." A memorandum of understanding signed in June briefly reopened the waterway and launched a 60-day negotiating window, but that agreement collapsed in early July when hostilities resumed. The current deadline is roughly two weeks away. Trump said on Monday the strait's reopening represented Iran's "last chance" before facing further military escalation, while simultaneously voicing support for diplomacy — a pattern that has repeated throughout the conflict.
Regional diplomacy has intensified in parallel. Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani held a phone call with Trump on Tuesday to discuss de-escalation efforts, with Doha's foreign ministry saying contacts had reached "very progressive stages." Qatar, Pakistan and Oman are all coordinating to exchange draft proposals between Washington and Tehran. Israel and Lebanon, meanwhile, are holding a separate round of US-mediated talks in Rome focused on implementing a June 26 framework agreement covering Hezbollah's disarmament and Israeli military redeployments from southern Lebanon.
The fragility of the situation was underscored by continued violence at sea. An Indian cargo vessel sank after being struck by a projectile near Yemen's coast in the Red Sea, with all 14 crew members rescued by the Yemeni coastguard. A separate cargo ship was struck by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz off Oman, with one crew member reported missing. Yemen's Houthi movement, which is aligned with Iran and has imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, also claimed a drone strike on Najran airport in southern Saudi Arabia, disrupting operations. The attacks highlight how military pressure continues even as diplomats work toward a deal — and how the cost of continued conflict, from spiking fuel and food prices to drawn-down US munitions stockpiles, is pushing all parties toward a negotiated, if fragile, resolution.