Ukraine is reinforcing its northern border with Belarus amid growing concern in Kyiv that Moscow is systematically integrating its eastern neighbour into the war effort. Along the forested border north of Chernihiv — a city that was briefly occupied by Russian forces in the early weeks of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 — work crews are digging anti-tank ditches, installing concrete "dragons' teeth" to block armoured vehicles, and stringing new rows of barbed wire. Troops stationed in the area report a roughly 20% rise in Russian intelligence drone flights since January, with residents of villages just kilometres from the border saying they now watch drones pass overhead daily.

The aerial activity is part of a broader pattern that Ukrainian and European officials find alarming. Russia has reportedly built five new drone bases near the Belarusian border, and a large new facility is under construction at Tsymbulovo in Russia's Oryol region. Belarusian airspace is being used as a transit corridor for drone strikes on Ukraine, and reports indicate Belarus has been expanding logistics routes, training grounds, and surveillance infrastructure in support of Russian operations. Ukrainian forces have shot down more than 500 drones in the Chernihiv region alone this year. Amid this backdrop, Russia and Belarus jointly accused Ukraine of striking a bus carrying Belarusian schoolchildren in Russia's Bryansk region — an allegation Ukraine's military flatly denied as false.

Senior Ukrainian officials are careful to distinguish between the current situation and a repeat of 2022, when Russian forces used Belarusian territory as a launchpad for a ground assault on Kyiv. There is, officials say, no evidence of large troop formations massing near the border. What concerns Kyiv and European capitals instead is an incremental deepening of Belarus's role — including joint nuclear exercises with Russia earlier this year. Former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has noted that Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko's behaviour is "different from 2022," suggesting he may be preparing for a more active role. Ukraine's unmanned forces commander, Robert Brovdi, added a pointed deterrent message, warning that Kyiv has already identified approximately 500 targets it would strike inside Belarus should Minsk's involvement become more direct.

Analysts are divided on how far Lukashenko would actually go. Some argue he is primarily using pro-Russian rhetoric to satisfy pressure from Moscow while managing his domestic audience. Others see a more dangerous trajectory. Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha has warned that "Moscow is increasingly dragging Belarus into its war against Ukraine, turning it into a platform for aggression, not only against our country, but against Europe as a whole." For European policymakers, the risk lies less in a sudden new front than in Belarus being locked into a "hybrid role" that stops short of full co-belligerent status while steadily deepening its participation in Russian aggression.

The heightened military anxiety on the northern border comes as Ukraine simultaneously pursues a long-sought political goal: formal EU accession negotiations began this week, jointly with Moldova, opening a diplomatic chapter that traces its roots to the 2014 Euromaidan protests. More than a hundred Ukrainians died during those demonstrations — remembered as the "Heavenly Hundred" — when crowds gathered in Kyiv to demand closer ties with Europe after the then-president refused to sign an EU association agreement. For Ukrainians who have fought since that moment, EU membership and military survival are seen as inseparable. "We must combine our strengths," said Oleksandr Inytsky, a Maidan volunteer who now commands a drone unit in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. "We need European support. And we have grown into a strong nation and learned how to fight."