The Netherlands' Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) has warned that Russia's armed forces have become larger, more effective, and more inventive since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Moscow making sweeping investments in heavy weapons systems and battlefield robotics. China has deepened its military cooperation with Russia, supplying drone components and selling satellite imagery to support Russian battlefield operations, while using the conflict as a learning opportunity given its own military's limited combat experience. The MIVD also cautioned that Russia could, within a year of any ceasefire, generate enough combat capability to initiate a regional conflict with NATO — not to defeat the alliance, but to drive it apart politically.