Iran has changed its tactics against vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz and is carrying out its most intense wave of attacks on shipping since the war began, according to Iranian officials, a US military official and maritime data. Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that the new approach is meant to keep oil prices high and to influence the outcome of the US midterm elections in November, which will decide control of Congress.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that, before the war, carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Tehran has tried to control passage since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28. The officials said Iran began using different offensive methods about 10 days ago, changing both the type and the pace of attacks, and that the decision was taken at the highest levels of leadership. "The aim is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices," one said. The other described it as "a game of chess": whenever prices seem about to fall, Iran will push them back up.
Independent data point to an escalation. At least five incidents involving tankers and other commercial ships, including drone strikes, were recorded around Hormuz in 48 hours, according to maritime security sources and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO). The Financial Times, cited by Dutch broadcaster NOS, reported that Iran struck six ships last Sunday alone, the most in a single day since the war began. Five were oil tankers and one a container ship, and two crew members from one tanker are missing. The newspaper counted 24 ships hit in the first 11 days of October. Shipping companies that had braved the risks because of high freight rates on longer routes are reportedly avoiding the area again. Only 2.9 million barrels passed through the strait on Sunday, against 15.5 million barrels per day in September, according to Kpler data.
A US military official said Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has begun using unarmed spotters in small boats to find targets, including US naval vessels, after US strikes destroyed much of its radar capability. Last week US forces confronted a dhow, a traditional sailing vessel, that was relaying targets, ordered its occupants off and destroyed it, with no casualties. The Iranian officials said operations will widen to the Gulf of Oman and beyond; analysts see attacks off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as a sign this may have started. One official said Hormuz would soon be completely closed to vessels violating Iran's restrictions. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center rates the threat to merchant shipping as "severe", its second-highest level.
The conflict, costing about $3 billion a month, has become a campaign issue in the US. President Donald Trump has said he will not attack Iran again before the vote, while Washington maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports and is extending sanctions to press Tehran toward a deal. The US also struck a ship in the strait on Sunday that it said had left Iran in breach of the blockade, a claim that could not be verified. The standoff leaves global energy markets exposed, as attack risks and high shipping and insurance costs complicate any return to normal traffic. The Pentagon and Iran's Foreign Ministry did not immediately comment.