As families and businesses across the world absorb rising energy costs linked to the war involving Iran and the United States, a handful of industries are reporting record or near-record earnings. The conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas normally flows — have upended global energy markets since late February, creating unusual opportunities for those positioned to benefit from volatility.
Energy companies have been among the clearest winners. Shell posted nearly six billion euros in profit for the first quarter of 2026, more than double the previous quarter, with close to a billion euros of that gain attributed directly to the Middle East conflict. France's TotalEnergies saw profits rise by around a third to $5.4 billion, driven by turbulent oil and energy markets. Britain's BP roughly doubled its quarterly earnings to nearly three billion euros, while Italy's ENI reported an 18 percent profit increase. US majors ExxonMobil and Chevron saw earnings dip compared to the same period last year due to supply disruption, but both beat analyst expectations and anticipate further gains as oil prices remain significantly elevated. The windfall has reignited a political debate in Europe over whether energy companies should pay additional taxes on these exceptional profits. Five EU countries have written to European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra advocating such a levy, pointing to a precedent set during the 2022 energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, when a temporary EU "solidarity contribution" raised billions. However, the European Commission has signalled it sees this as a matter for individual member states, and legal challenges from energy firms to the earlier tax remain unresolved.
Major banks have also benefited substantially. JP Morgan's trading division posted a record $11.6 billion in revenue in the first three months of 2026, contributing to the bank's second-largest quarterly profit ever. Across the so-called Big Six US banks — JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo — combined profits reached $47.7 billion in the same period. Analysts attribute the surge to a wave of investor activity, with some selling off riskier assets in fear of further escalation while others moved to buy during market dips, all of it generating lucrative trading volumes.
The defence sector has similarly gained momentum. BAE Systems, which manufactures components for the F-35 fighter jet among other products, said it expects strong sales and profit growth this year, citing rising global security threats driving up government spending. US defence contractors Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman each reported record order backlogs as of the end of March 2026. Even the renewables sector has seen unexpected benefits: shares in Florida-based NextEra Energy have risen 17 percent this year, while Danish wind power companies Vestas and Ørsted have reported surging profits, as the conflict underlines the strategic value of energy independence.
Against this backdrop, market analysts and regulators are scrutinising unusual trading patterns that preceded key policy announcements. A Reuters review of trading data identified approximately seven billion dollars in bets placed on falling oil prices across several days in March and April 2026 — positions taken shortly before statements by US President Donald Trump on Iran policy that subsequently moved markets sharply downward. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reported to be examining these movements, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is said to be investigating certain transactions, though no formal charges have been announced. The pattern echoes a separate, recently publicised case in which a US soldier was charged with using classified intelligence about a military operation to profit on a prediction market — a reminder that the line between market opportunity and the misuse of privileged information is under increasing scrutiny as the conflict continues.