The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its growth forecast for Pakistan at 3.7% for the current fiscal year (FY2027), falling short of the government's own budget target of 4%. The Manila-based lender also projects inflation will rise to 8.3%, above the central bank's medium-term target range of 5–7%, driven by elevated energy, logistics, and agricultural input costs. The ADB warned of significant downside risks, including potential escalation of the Middle East conflict — which could raise energy import costs and reduce workers' remittances from Gulf economies — as well as possible austerity measures, tighter global financing conditions, and delays in energy-sector reforms.