Escalating tensions in the Middle East and Chinese export restrictions on fertiliser are threatening New Zealand's agricultural sector, which depends heavily on imports of urea and other nutrients to sustain its dairy and beef industries. The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway linking the Gulf to global shipping lanes — carries significant volumes of fertiliser from Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which together supplied 36% of global urea exports between 2023 and 2025, and any prolonged disruption risks supply shortfalls and price spikes ahead of planting seasons. New Zealand has yet to adopt a national food security strategy, though longer-term options such as biofertilisers and the Kapuni Project (a government-industry initiative to produce greener nitrogen fertiliser from wind-powered hydrogen, due online in 2027) have been proposed as ways to reduce the country's vulnerability.