Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, through which roughly 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas and oil once flowed daily — have cut maritime traffic by more than 90%, sending shockwaves through global energy and food systems. Around 30% of the world's fertilizer trade passed through the strait in 2024, and with nearly half of global urea (the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer) produced in the region, disruptions are already causing sharp price rises: the World Bank recorded a nearly 46% month-on-month surge in urea prices between February and March. The UN Development Programme has warned that the cascading effects — higher energy costs, fertilizer shortages during the northern hemisphere planting season, and rising food prices — could push up to 30 million people into poverty, with the heaviest burden falling on import-dependent nations across Africa and the Global South. Meanwhile, the European Commission is resisting calls from Spain, Germany, Italy, Austria, and Portugal to introduce a coordinated EU-wide windfall tax on energy companies profiting from the crisis, instead leaving such measures to individual member states.