The International Criminal Court's appeals chamber is due to issue a landmark ruling on Wednesday on whether it has jurisdiction to try former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte for crimes against humanity linked to his administration's brutal "war on drugs." The decision, scheduled for 5 p.m. Manila time, will determine whether the case against Duterte — who has already been transferred to The Hague — can proceed, or whether he will be returned to the Philippines.
The jurisdiction question is the centrepiece of Duterte's legal defence. His lawyers argue that because the Philippines formally withdrew from the Rome Statute — the treaty that established the ICC — in 2019, the court lost its authority over alleged crimes once the withdrawal took effect, even though those crimes were committed while the country was still a member. The ICC prosecutor, however, was only authorised to open a formal investigation in 2021. Duterte's defence contends the timeline is fatal to the court's case. The pre-trial chamber rejected that argument unanimously, and two earlier ICC rulings also upheld jurisdiction, though one was decided by a narrow 3–2 margin. The defence has now brought the matter before the five-judge appeals chamber.
The five judges are not all entering the chamber with clean slates. Two — Judge Luz del Carmen Ibáñez Carranza of Peru and Judge Solomy Balungi Bossa of Uganda — previously voted in 2023 that the court does have jurisdiction, while Judge Gocha Lordkipanidze of Georgia voted against. Presiding Judge Tomoko Akane of Japan and Judge Erdenebalsuren Damdin of Mongolia are ruling on the issue for the first time, making them the likely swing votes in what Duterte's own lawyer has described as an "all or nothing" decision.
The stakes extend well beyond Duterte personally. Joel Ruiz Butuyan, a Manila-based human rights lawyer who represents 534 victims and their families before the ICC, warns that a ruling against jurisdiction would set a dangerous precedent, giving authoritarian-minded governments a roadmap to escape accountability simply by withdrawing from the court. "The ICC is a last anchor for criminal prosecution," Butuyan said. "When national justice fails, it offers hope." Human rights organisations estimate that more than 27,000 people were killed by state security forces during Duterte's presidency from 2016 to 2022, with up to 300,000 people affected by the violence overall.
A separate but equally significant ruling is expected by 30 April, when the pre-trial chamber will decide whether there is sufficient evidence to confirm the charges and proceed to trial. If both rulings go against Duterte, a trial — expected to last one to two years, a shorter timeline than usual given Duterte's age of 81 — could begin in earnest. Hovering in the background is the broader pressure on the court itself: US sanctions targeting ICC judges and prosecutors have left some unable to access bank accounts or basic services, prompting calls for the European Union to introduce countermeasures to shield court officials from economic pressure.