Israel heads to the polls on October 27 in its first general election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, with the war in Gaza and questions of national security dominating the campaign. Analysts cited by Al Jazeera say the vote reflects a rightward shift in Israeli politics that began decades ago but has deepened sharply since the attacks, in which 1,139 people were killed in Israel. France 24 reports that the trauma of that day is also pushing first-time voters toward the right.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made security the centrepiece of his bid for re-election. On September 29 he warned that Israel's enemies were planning an attack before the vote, without offering evidence, and pointed to Israeli military operations in Gaza that he said had killed more than 100 "terrorists" in recent weeks. Analysts say the message is deliberate: that only he can protect Israelis from threats on every border. Israeli military action in Gaza has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to figures cited by Al Jazeera, and nearly 1,500 people have reportedly been killed since a ceasefire last year.
The rhetoric from parts of the political right has hardened. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who is sanctioned by several Western countries, said the army should "go to war" in the occupied West Bank and "do there what we did in Gaza". His electoral ally Moshe Feiglin said "the enemy is Gaza, not Hamas" and called for annexing the territory after the election. Palestinian analyst Ahmed Najar argues such remarks are an electoral message, not stray comments from the fringe. Omar Baddar of Palthink for Strategic Studies describes a "consensus" across the political spectrum to continue attacks on Gaza, and says several parties, in government and opposition, support expelling Palestinians from the territory. Security analyst Ahron Bregman of King's College London notes that the move rightward began after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, and says Netanyahu legitimised figures such as Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir by bringing them into his coalition. Rights groups also point to unequal treatment: Palestinian citizen of Israel Sami Abu Shehadeh was forced to withdraw over remarks about the war, while far-right leaders faced no such consequence.
Netanyahu remains politically vulnerable but resilient. Reports last month said he had received warnings from Egyptian and Emirati leaders before the 2023 attack; he denies this, and his two main rivals have called him unfit for office. Yet polls show little effect. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group says that although trust was already damaged by the government's judicial overhaul, Israelis still see Netanyahu as the figure to trust on security and "don't really see an alternative".
Why this matters: the election is likely to show how far a national trauma has reshaped what is considered mainstream in Israeli politics, with consequences for the future of Gaza, the West Bank and any prospect of a Palestinian state. Al Jazeera's account is critical of the war and uses the term genocide, which Israel rejects; the broader point on which analysts agree is that security and the Palestinian question now frame the choice before voters.