Russia's Victory Day on May 9 — the annual commemoration of the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945, long one of the most politically charged dates in the Russian calendar — is being marked this year with a significantly reduced military display in Moscow. For the first time in nineteen years, no heavy weapons such as tanks or missiles will roll through Red Square, a stark departure from the elaborate shows of military hardware that have been a hallmark of Vladimir Putin's rule. The decision reflects a sobering reality: Ukraine's expanding long-range strike capabilities have made Russian territory feel far less secure than the Kremlin would like to project.

In the days leading up to May 9, Ukrainian forces launched a sustained campaign of drone and missile strikes deep inside Russia, hitting oil refineries, industrial facilities and residential buildings across multiple cities — including a strike on a Moscow high-rise just kilometres from the Kremlin. Russia's foreign ministry responded by warning foreign embassies in Kyiv to evacuate, threatening retaliation should Ukraine target Moscow during the parade. Putin, whose public appearances have grown increasingly infrequent according to western intelligence assessments, will nonetheless be required to show his face on Red Square. His guests will include Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, a notably thin roster compared with previous years.

Both sides announced short-term ceasefires around the anniversary, but the gestures unravelled quickly. Ukraine declared a halt to hostilities from midnight on May 6, while Russia proposed a ceasefire covering May 8 and 9. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared the Russian ceasefire broken within hours, as strikes continued on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine's foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, was blunt: Putin, he said, cared about military parades, not human lives. Meanwhile, in Kyiv, residents marked the end of the Second World War not with celebration but with a display of burned-out Russian tanks and downed Shahed kamikaze drones in the city centre — a deliberate counter-narrative to Moscow's triumphalism. "The memory of the Second World War fades while we stand on the threshold of a third," said one Kyiv resident whose husband is fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The contrast between the two commemorations carries deeper significance. Ukrainian historian Vladlen Marayev notes that Putin has elevated Victory Day into the centrepiece of Russian national identity — more so than in Soviet times, when large parades were reserved for milestone anniversaries. That mythology now frames Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a continuation of the "Great Patriotic War," casting Ukrainians as fascists to be defeated. Analysts see this as both a domestic mobilisation tool and a sign of strategic rigidity: Russia's political elite remains anchored in an imperial worldset that has consistently miscalculated the resilience of Ukrainian society and the limits of Moscow's regional influence.

The war, now in its fifth year, continues to exact a devastating toll. Civilian deaths in Ukraine rose 26% in 2025 compared to the previous year, and winter attacks on energy infrastructure left millions without heat or electricity for extended periods. Despite this pressure, Zelenskyy's approval ratings hold at around 60%, and a majority of Ukrainians continue to reject territorial concessions. Russia, buoyed by elevated oil revenues, has pressed forward with a spring offensive rather than genuine diplomacy. With peace talks effectively stalled and the ceasefire gestures collapsing almost immediately, this year's pared-down Victory Day parade may say more about the state of the war than any speech from the podium.