Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's ruling Prosperity Party has swept the country's general elections, securing 438 of 486 contested parliamentary seats — roughly 90 percent — according to official results announced Sunday by the National Elections Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). The outcome virtually guarantees that Abiy, who has governed since 2018, will be sworn in for another term when the new parliament opens and selects a prime minister, a process expected between late September and early October.

The election, held on 1 June across 501 of the country's 547 constituencies, was marked by significant disruption. Voting was not held in any of the 38 constituencies in the Tigray region, which is still recovering from a devastating 2020–2022 civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people. Tensions there are rising sharply: both federal and regional forces have deployed troops along the region's borders, and each side accuses the other of preparing a new offensive. In Amhara — Ethiopia's second most populous region — Fano nationalist militias, which have been clashing with federal forces for over three years, threatened to disrupt the vote; conflict monitors recorded at least 90 clashes on polling day alone. In Oromia, the most populous region, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) attacked polling sites and killed at least 11 civilians. As a result, 143 polling stations never opened, and re-runs are planned in 15 additional constituencies.

The opposition offered little effective challenge. While more than 40 parties entered the race, most lacked resources and did not field candidates in many constituencies; the PP ran unopposed in 64 seats. The best-resourced opposition party, Ezema, fielded only 293 candidates compared to the PP's 461. Several opposition coalitions announced they would refuse to accept any seats in the new parliament.

Abiy's trajectory illustrates a striking reversal. He first came to power in 2018 amid mass protests, releasing political prisoners and journalists and winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for brokering peace with neighbouring Eritrea. Today he faces growing criticism for repressing dissent, and the country's security landscape is deeply fragmented. The African Union's election observation mission noted security consequences and called for greater political pluralism.

Analysts warn the months ahead could be decisive. The 2022 Tigray peace agreement is under strain, with both sides accused of violating it. Eritrea, once reconciled with Addis Ababa, has now aligned itself with Tigrayan forces — meaning any new conflict could rapidly acquire a regional dimension. The United States this week imposed targeted visa restrictions on hardline members of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), while the European Union called for immediate de-escalation. For a country of 130 million people at the crossroads of the Horn of Africa, the consolidation of political power by Abiy's party has done little to resolve the underlying tensions that threaten to tip Ethiopia back toward large-scale conflict.