A powerful El Niño weather event forecast for 2026 is raising alarm among economists and climate scientists, who warn it could trigger widespread crop failures, commodity price spikes, and social instability at a moment when the global economy already has little room to absorb shocks. Experts put the probability of a so-called super El Niño — defined by sea surface temperatures more than two degrees Celsius above normal in the central Pacific Ocean — at around 81 percent. The naturally occurring climate pattern, which builds over the Pacific every few years and typically peaks around year-end, disrupts rainfall and wind patterns across South America, Africa, and Asia.
The economic consequences could be severe. The International Monetary Fund estimates that such an event pushes non-energy commodity prices up by roughly 5.5 percent within a year. Markets are already reacting: US agricultural futures have seen rice prices rise by over 40 percent since the start of the year, wheat by more than 30 percent, and cotton by over 25 percent. Cocoa prices surged 50 percent in a single month after meteorologists issued their super El Niño warnings — bad news for manufacturers dependent on the crop. Indonesia and Malaysia have reportedly begun stockpiling rice in anticipation of supply disruptions, while a weak monsoon season in India threatens harvests in the world's most populous country, which is also a major rice exporter. Researchers at Dartmouth College in the United States estimate that a major El Niño event can cause global income losses running into the trillions of dollars.
Africa faces particularly acute risks. The African Development Bank estimates that a super El Niño could inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion hit on affected African economies, reducing GDP in heavily impacted countries by one to two percent on average. The pattern typically brings drought to Southern Africa and destructive flooding to East Africa. In the 2023–2024 El Niño cycle, this led to widespread crop failures and surging food prices across the continent. African farmers are already absorbing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, partly due to high fertiliser costs linked to conflict in the Middle East. Countries including Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria are considered especially vulnerable, with mass migration from hard-hit regions a serious possibility.
The threat arrives on top of a cascade of existing pressures. A conflict at the Persian Gulf has already driven up energy and fertiliser prices globally — about a third of the world's supply of urea, a key fertiliser ingredient, originates from the Gulf region. Low river levels on major European waterways such as the Rhine are already hampering freight transport, and a heatwave has weakened wheat harvests in France. A Deutsche Bank analyst noted that the global economy currently lacks the buffers needed to absorb another major shock. Analysts at Oxford Economics warn that food price inflation from the summer heat alone could exceed the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, and that El Niño could add a further percentage point to food price rises.
Why this matters: compounding crises — war, debt, climate disruption, and now a potential super El Niño — are converging in a way that is particularly dangerous for import-dependent developing nations. Governments under pressure often respond with export restrictions and price controls that, while protecting domestic populations, can worsen scarcity on world markets. The insurance industry is already preparing for a surge in claims, while the broader risk of social unrest in emerging economies adds a political dimension to what begins as a meteorological forecast.