Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally launched his campaign for a fourth presidential term on Sunday, pledging to increase defence spending and protect the country's vast mineral wealth from foreign interference. Speaking to a packed convention centre in São Paulo, where Workers' Party supporters filled the hall with red flags and chants, Lula — running for the presidency for the seventh time — told supporters this would be his final term if elected in October.

Sovereignty formed the centrepiece of Lula's address. He called for significantly higher defence investment, citing the military build-ups already under way in the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan, and acknowledging that some Brazilians remain wary of military expansion given the country's experience of a military dictatorship between 1964 and 1985. "I want to be prepared so that no one invades this country," he said, in what analysts interpreted as a reference to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US special forces in January, though he did not name him directly. Lula also declared that neither China nor the United States would be granted access to Brazil's reserves of rare earths and critical minerals — resources which international estimates rank among the largest in the world, largely unexplored — without respecting Brazilian sovereignty.

The campaign backdrop is shaped in part by a deteriorating relationship with Washington. The United States imposed two rounds of tariffs on Brazilian goods in July, alleging unfair trade practices — a charge Brasília rejects. President Donald Trump has also maintained close ties with Lula's main opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro was convicted of plotting to overturn the 2022 election result and is currently under house arrest. Lula has sought to frame the election as a contest between national independence and foreign influence, calling Flávio Bolsonaro a "traitor to the nation" — an accusation the senator rejects. A political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation told AFP that the sovereignty message had arrived "at the perfect time" for Lula, giving him a means to identify an external adversary.

Lula's coalition, which includes seven parties — among them the Workers' Party (PT), the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) and several smaller left and centre-left forces — confirmed Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, repeating the winning ticket of 2022. The formal campaign launch is scheduled for 16 August at a stadium in São Bernardo do Campo, the industrial city near São Paulo where Lula built his early career as a metalworker and trade union leader.

The race is expected to be tight. A recent Datafolha poll put Lula at 48 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro's 43 percent in a potential second round — a narrow margin in a deeply polarised country. Lula can point to solid economic growth, record employment and popular social programmes, but faces significant vulnerabilities: the rising cost of living, a worsening budget deficit, and public anxiety over organised crime, which controls large swathes of poor urban neighbourhoods. Corruption allegations cloud both campaigns — Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation over alleged attempts to solicit funds from a banker accused of financial fraud, while Brazilian authorities this week opened an inquiry into one of Lula's sons over suspected corruption and influence-peddling. At 80, Lula also faces questions about his fitness for office; he told supporters that regular exercise had left him in better shape than when he first won the presidency in 2002.