The International Monetary Fund has raised fresh concerns about the trajectory of the U.S. economy as the ongoing war against Iran continues to push energy prices higher, compounding inflationary pressures that President Donald Trump has struggled to address since returning to the White House. Oil prices have jumped roughly 35% since the United States launched strikes against Iran in February, and gasoline costs — which Trump had promised to dramatically reduce — have become a defining grievance for American households.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a significant share of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes, has been at the centre of the economic turbulence. Iran has repeatedly opened and closed the strait during the conflict, sending energy markets on a volatile ride. The consumer price index rose 3.3% in March compared to a year earlier, slightly above the 3% rate Trump inherited when he took office, and close to two-thirds of Americans now describe the economy as in poor condition — up from about two-thirds in February.
Multiple polls paint a consistent picture of deepening public discontent. An AP-NORC survey conducted April 16–20 found Trump's approval rating on the economy had dropped to 30%, down from 38% in March, while a broader NBC News Decision Desk poll of more than 32,000 adults found 63% disapprove of his overall performance. Only about one-quarter of Americans approve of his handling of the cost of living, and roughly 40% say their personal financial situation is worse today than a year ago — a record low for Trump's second term. Even within his own Republican Party, enthusiasm has softened: only 62% of Republicans now approve of his economic management, down from 74% the previous month, and approximately six in ten Republicans under 45 disapprove of his handling of costs.
The administration has sent mixed signals on when relief might come. Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested gasoline prices had likely peaked but acknowledged they could remain elevated for months, possibly into next year. Trump publicly contradicted him, saying fuel costs would fall "as soon as this is over" — a comment that reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding the conflict's duration. Trump himself described the war as a "little journey" and said he was surprised oil had reached only around $90 a barrel, framing it as better than the $200 he claimed to have anticipated.
The political consequences are becoming harder to ignore ahead of November's midterm elections, in which Trump's party will defend its majorities in both chambers of Congress. The economy and the Iran war have overtaken immigration as Americans' top concerns, a significant shift given that border policy was central to Trump's 2024 campaign. A substantial majority — 61% — believe the United States should not pursue further military action against Iran. For some former Trump supporters, the gap between campaign promises and reality has become untenable. "It's like high school class president: 'I'm gonna promise we are going to get pizza every single day,'" said Kathryn Bright, a retired U.S. Air Force captain in Colorado. "Then as soon as they get elected they are like, 'Oh, I lied.'"