A Paris appeals court is set to deliver its verdict on Tuesday on the embezzlement conviction of Marine Le Pen, the 57-year-old leader of France's far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN) party, in a ruling that will determine whether she can stand in the 2027 presidential election. The court is expected to announce its decision at 13:30 local time (11:30 GMT), with Le Pen pledging to address the nation on French television later that evening.

Le Pen was originally convicted on 31 March 2025 of embezzling €1.4 million in European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016, money used to pay RN party employees rather than the parliamentary assistants the funds were intended for. She served as a Member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2017. The original sentence included a four-year prison term — two years suspended and two to be served at home with an electronic tag — and a five-year ban on holding public office, which immediately disqualified her from the 2027 race. Prosecutors are now asking the appeals court to maintain the five-year ban while reducing the custodial portion to one year with an electronic tag and three years suspended.

The possible outcomes are finely balanced. An acquittal, widely considered unlikely, would clear her path to the presidency. A ban of more than two years — counting from the original March 2025 ruling — would keep her out of the race, as the clock has continued ticking. Only a reduced ban of two years or less would allow her to stand. Le Pen has already signalled that even a sentence involving an electronic tag would effectively rule her out, arguing that a presidential candidate must be free to campaign without requiring a judge's permission to attend rallies or public events. She has indicated she is unlikely to pursue a further appeal to France's highest court, the Court of Cassation, though prosecutors could do so even if she is acquitted.

With less than ten months until the first round of the presidential vote, scheduled for 18 April 2027, Le Pen leads opinion polls. Her designated stand-in, 30-year-old Jordan Bardella, who has chaired the RN since 2022, is already polling at above 30% for the first round — marginally ahead of Le Pen in some surveys. Bardella declared his full support for Le Pen at the weekend at a party event in Liévin, a town in the northern Pas-de-Calais region, where the mood among rank-and-file supporters ranged from cautious optimism to quiet resignation. Many said they were comfortable with either candidate: "Whether it's Marine or Jordan, it's the same for me," one supporter told reporters.

The verdict carries consequences well beyond Le Pen herself. Twelve other RN figures, including the party's vice-president and mayor of Perpignan, Louis Aliot, also face appeal rulings in the same case. More broadly, the outcome will shape the contours of France's presidential race at a moment when the political landscape remains volatile. Le Pen, who rebuilt the party her father Jean-Marie Le Pen founded in 1972 — eventually expelling him in 2015 over his Holocaust remarks and rebranding it National Rally in 2018 — has cast herself as the victim of selective prosecution. The original trial judges, however, found she was "at the heart" of the fake-jobs scheme and had "authoritatively and with determination embraced" it.