India's Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its 2026 monsoon forecast downward to 90% of the long-period average, the lowest pre-monsoon estimate the agency has ever issued, down from its April projection of 92%. Officials warn there is a 60% probability that rainfall will fall below this threshold, which the IMD classifies as "deficient," with northwest, central, and southern regions expected to be hardest hit and temperatures forecast to remain above normal. The monsoon, originally expected to reach the southern state of Kerala on May 26, has stalled over the surrounding seas and is now anticipated to make landfall in the first week of June.