The United States military has significantly intensified surveillance operations near Cuba, publicly broadcasting the locations of naval jets and drones near the island while deploying an aircraft carrier to the Caribbean — moves that analysts say are designed to enforce an oil blockade and pressure Havana's communist government into negotiations.
BBC Verify analysis of flight-tracking data from Flightradar24 shows at least five US Navy P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft and three MQ-4C Triton surveillance drones operating in the Caribbean near Cuba since 11 May. Some flights have approached within 50 miles (80 kilometres) of the island's coast. Crucially, the aircraft's transponders — devices that broadcast their position — appear to have been left on deliberately. UK drone expert Dr Steve Wright described this as a calculated signal, saying the US is sending "a clear message it has eyes in the sky to maintain the squeeze." Defence intelligence firm Janes assessed that the visible nature of the flights is intended to deter allies of Cuba, particularly Venezuela, from shipping fuel to the island in breach of the blockade.
On Wednesday, the USS Nimitz carrier strike group — comprising an aircraft carrier, guided-missile destroyer, and a supply ship capable of carrying more than 60 combat aircraft — arrived in the Caribbean. US Southern Command announced the deployment on social media, describing the group as "the epitome of readiness and presence." The same day, the Trump administration formally indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro on four counts of murder and two counts of aircraft destruction. Acting US Attorney General Todd Blanche said Washington expects Castro to appear in the United States "willingly or otherwise." Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel dismissed the indictment as a "political manoeuvre, devoid of any legal basis."
The escalation follows months of mounting pressure on the island, which has been under a US embargo since 1962 and has faced a tightening oil blockade imposed by the Trump administration since January. The resulting fuel crisis has triggered severe power blackouts and protests across Cuba. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, addressing Cubans directly in Spanish on the anniversary of Cuba's independence from the US, offered a "new relationship" while blaming the island's hardships on its communist leadership rather than the blockade. President Trump stated that Cuba is a "pariah state harbouring hostile foreign military forces" and framed US actions as part of a broader regional push, declaring: "From the beaches of Havana to the shores of the Panama Canal, we will expel the forces of lawlessness."
Three Democratic US senators introduced a resolution on Wednesday seeking to prevent military action against Cuba without congressional approval, arguing that Cuba does not represent a significant security threat to the United States. Defence analyst Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the surveillance flight patterns suggest a focus on monitoring ship arrivals and are not preparations for an invasion, cautioning that the number of P-8 and Triton aircraft the US has available is limited, making their sustained deployment notable. The parallel with events preceding the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this year — who was also indicted before being taken to the US — has not been lost on observers, though Trump himself said he does not believe further escalation will be necessary.