US President Donald Trump has announced that Washington is working on a "massive" deal to purchase potash from Belarus, seeking to reduce dependence on Canada amid an escalating trade dispute with America's northern neighbour. "The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our farmers and ranchers," Trump wrote on his Truth Social network. The move marks a significant diplomatic pivot, drawing the United States closer to a government that has long been isolated by Western nations for its repression of dissidents and its support for Russia's war in Ukraine.
Potash — a potassium-rich salt mined primarily for use in fertiliser — is critical to American agriculture, helping crops grow and improving yields. The US imports the vast majority of its potash supply, and prices surged after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted global markets. According to the US Geological Survey, Canada accounted for 79% of American potash imports in 2024, followed by Russia at 11% and Belarus at 4%. Belarus is one of the world's largest potash producers, with its state-owned company Belaruskali a dominant player — though the European Union has banned imports of Belarusian potash and frozen the firm's assets in response to Minsk's role in the Ukraine conflict.
The proposed deal is part of a quiet but deliberate effort by the Trump administration to thaw relations with Minsk. Talks led by US envoy John Coale have already yielded results: Belarus has released hundreds of political prisoners in exchange for Washington easing sanctions on Belarusian companies, including those in the potash sector. Last week, 25 political prisoners were freed as part of that process. Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenko — who has held power since 1994 — had his contested 2020 re-election followed by a wave of mass protests that he suppressed, triggering an initial round of Western sanctions. A further round came in 2022 after Minsk allowed Russian forces to use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine; more recently, the country authorised joint nuclear drills with Russia.
The announcement has drawn sharp criticism from Belarus's exiled opposition. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leading opposition figure who fled the country after the 2020 crackdown, warned that any deal with Lukashenko was "very risky." She argued that revenues from potash exports flow directly into the machinery of repression and support for Russia's war effort. "It is not time to trade with the regime," she said, while also expressing confidence that American policymakers understand the nature of Lukashenko's government.
The episode underscores a broader reordering of US trade and foreign policy under Trump's second administration — one that has strained ties with traditional allies such as Canada while opening channels with governments previously kept at arm's length. For American farmers caught in the crossfire of the Canada trade war, the promise of cheaper fertiliser may prove appealing, but the geopolitical costs of the arrangement are likely to remain a point of contention both at home and among US allies in Europe.