Colombians will go to the polls on Sunday, 31 May, to elect a new president in a contest that has crystallised around two sharply different visions for South America's fourth-largest country. The election comes at the end of four years under Gustavo Petro, Colombia's first left-wing president, whose term leaves behind a contested legacy of social progress, fiscal strain, and unfinished reform.

The frontrunner, according to the latest Invamer poll — Colombia's most respected survey — is Iván Cepeda, a veteran left-wing congressman from Petro's own party, who leads with around 44 percent of voting intentions. Cepeda wants to extend the outgoing government's signature social programmes, including the "zero tuition" scheme that has covered university fees for 870,000 students at public institutions since 2023, while continuing the push for renewable energy and rural development. His main rival, Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right lawyer polling at roughly 32 percent, is running as an outsider who has drawn comparisons to El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele. He has proposed building mega-prisons to tackle security, reducing public spending, and lowering taxes for large corporations — and has indicated he would authorise fracking to boost oil production. Three other candidates trail significantly: conservative Paloma Valencia at 14 percent, centrist Sergio Fajardo at 2.4 percent, and former Bogotá mayor Claudia López at 2.2 percent. López, a centrist who served as the capital's mayor during the Covid-19 pandemic and is one of Colombia's most prominent anti-corruption voices, has argued that drug trafficking cannot be defeated without first tackling deep inequality.

The outgoing Petro government's record is fiercely debated. On the positive side, unemployment fell to 10.9 percent in January — the lowest in 25 years — and a landmark labour reform raised the minimum wage by 23 percent, improved overtime rules, and boosted purchasing power for workers. Poverty has declined. On the other hand, public debt has grown substantially and now stands at 58.5 percent of GDP, an increase of 400 trillion pesos during Petro's term. Much of his legislative agenda — including tax reform, a wealth tax on the rich, and a new pension system — was blocked by Congress, forcing the government to rely on borrowing to fund social spending.

The next president will inherit significant structural challenges. Hydrocarbons — oil, coal, and gas — account for more than 40 percent of Colombia's exports, yet Petro suspended new exploration contracts as part of an energy transition drive. Whoever takes office will need to find new sources of revenue or decide whether to revive fossil fuel extraction. Security also looms large: Colombia has a long history of armed conflict involving guerrilla groups and criminal organisations, and Petro's peace negotiations with illegal armed groups produced mixed results. Meanwhile, the country shares a long, porous border with Venezuela, whose political crisis has sent millions of migrants into Colombia in recent years.

The election matters beyond Colombia's borders. The outcome will shape the country's relationship with neighbouring Brazil and its approach to regional security and Amazon protection. With the two leading candidates representing starkly different economic and social models, Sunday's vote is widely seen as a pivotal moment for a country still working to define its path after decades of conflict and inequality.