Updates
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The United States suspended consular services across Brazil on Friday, October 2, citing unspecified security concerns two days before the vote, and Australia closed its embassy in Brasília in response, advising citizens to avoid U.S. diplomatic facilities. The Folha de S.Paulo reported, citing authorities involved in the investigation, that the trigger was a social media profile claiming it would plant a bomb at the U.S. embassy; a police operation traced the author and found nothing, and Brazil's federal police said they found no evidence of any planned acts, though they carried out preventive search-and-seizure warrants in São Paulo and the Federal District. U.S. diplomats quoted by the newspaper called the shutdown unusual, saying such threats are routine and rarely lead to closing every mission in a country. Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Ireland have also issued travel alerts warning of possible protests and security risks before, during and after the election.
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Brazil's final televised presidential debate was scrapped on Thursday, October 1, after both frontrunners pulled out, marking the first time in 20 years that the leading candidates have avoided a public confrontation. Broadcaster TV Globo cancelled the event about an hour before it was due to start, citing last-minute rulings by the Superior Electoral Court that altered the agreed rules, including restrictions on showing an empty lectern or directing questions to an absent candidate; the court judge noted that attending debates is optional. Lula, 80, said he would instead appear on the Flow podcast, where he said "it's either me, or it's barbarism" and cast himself as the only barrier to a return of the Bolsonaro family to power, while Flávio Bolsonaro withdrew hours later, citing "censorship" by the court. On Friday, Lula led a march through central Rio de Janeiro that his team billed as a "victory march," and Brazilian outlets noted that China, despite buying roughly 30% of the country's exports, barely featured in the campaign beyond being used as ammunition between the two camps.
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Brazil's government escalated its response on Thursday, October 1, three days before the vote, after The Guardian reported that the Trump administration was pushing to direct about $1 million in State Department funds to groups campaigning against Brazil's supreme court. Attorney General Jorge Messias called the report "an important alert for Brazilian sovereignty" and said foreign meddling in the country's institutions and democracy "cannot be tolerated"; his office filed a criminal complaint and asked federal police to investigate the alleged use of public funds to promote a far-right agenda. The money would come from the State Department's Human Rights and Democracy Fund, part of a $176.9 million package for right-wing and conservative initiatives in several countries, which by law had to be allocated by September 30. Asked about the vote the same day, Mr. Trump said he is following the election "closely" and called it "very important" without endorsing either candidate, while Brazil's intelligence agency Abin has reportedly raised its assessment of the risk of U.S. interference.
Brazil's presidential election, with a first round on Sunday, October 4, is being fought against the backdrop of unusually visible involvement by U.S. President Donald Trump. Polls have projected a tight race between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist seeking re-election, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro. Whether Mr. Trump's influence helps or hurts either side remains unclear.
Mr. Trump has a record of backing Latin American allies, including Argentina's Javier Milei and Honduras's Nasry Asfura, and Oliver Stuenkel, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Brazil, expects an attempt to sway this vote as well. Yet this time the picture is less clear-cut. Mr. Trump has praised his "excellent chemistry" with Mr. Lula, who has nonetheless accused him of behaving like an "emperor", and has also called Mr. Bolsonaro a "smart young man who loves his country." Both men visited the White House in recent weeks.
Soon after Mr. Bolsonaro's visit in May, Washington designated Brazil's two largest criminal groups, the Red Command and the First Capital Command, as terrorist organizations, a long-standing demand of Brazil's right. Mr. Bolsonaro claimed credit, and a pro-Bolsonaro lawmaker said the move helps his camp because organized crime is a major worry for tens of millions of people in working-class areas. That concern is also why the battle for votes in the favelas, Brazil's densely populated low-income neighbourhoods, has drawn attention. The same lawmaker warned the "Trump card" must be used carefully, since Brazilians are divided over the U.S. leader.
Trade has complicated matters. In 2025 the United States imposed steep tariffs on Brazil after Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of plotting a coup; most have since been lifted. A new proposal for 25% tariffs over alleged unfair trade practices has again angered Brasília. Mr. Lula blamed Flávio Bolsonaro's lobbying in Washington and called him a "traitor"; Mr. Bolsonaro denies this. Analysts say the tariff threat cancelled out much of the advantage the terrorism designation gave him. Mr. Lula says he wants to negotiate directly with Mr. Trump but that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is blocking him. Both leaders are due at the G7 summit in France, though a one-on-one meeting is unconfirmed.
In the campaign's final days, domestic controversy has also flared. Mr. Lula's remarks about men's reluctance to have prostate exams drew criticism from allies of Mr. Bolsonaro, including deputy Nikolas Ferreira, who linked them to child abuse. Mr. Lula's coalition has gone to the Superior Electoral Court, saying the comments concerned public health. Voters will also choose governors, senators and deputies, making the outcome consequential for Brazil's relations with Washington and its domestic politics alike.
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