Europe's aviation sector is scrambling to secure adequate jet fuel supplies as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas — stretches into its second month. The European Union's Transport Commissioner, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, sought to calm public anxiety on Tuesday, insisting there is currently no evidence of "actual shortages" and that widespread flight cancellations this summer remain unlikely. However, he acknowledged that stocks are "under pressure" in parts of Europe and that some carriers have already suspended flights or imposed fuel surcharges, attributing those decisions to high costs rather than a failure of supply.
The International Energy Agency's head, Fatih Birol, struck a more urgent tone last week, warning that Europe has "maybe six weeks or so" of jet fuel remaining and that cancellations could follow "soon" if disruption continues. The EU imports between 30 and 40 percent of its jet fuel needs, with roughly half of that coming from the Middle East. In response, Brussels is expected to announce a package of measures on Wednesday, including a new "fuel observatory" to monitor stocks, an assessment of mandatory minimum reserve requirements for member states, and an investigation into alternative supplies — including imports from the United States.
The pressure is already being felt on the ground. Germany's Lufthansa announced it will cut 20,000 short-haul flights through October to conserve fuel, a move equivalent to saving roughly 40,000 tonnes of kerosene whose price has doubled since the conflict began. Its regional subsidiary CityLine — which had been earmarked for closure in 2028 — is being wound down early, with 120 daily European routes already removed from schedules. Dutch carrier KLM is cutting 80 return flights within Europe over the coming month, focusing on high-frequency routes such as London and Düsseldorf. Airlines including Delta, Cathay Pacific, AirAsia X and Air New Zealand have made similar adjustments globally.
Beyond aviation, economists and food security experts are warning of a broader crisis still unfolding in slow motion. The Strait of Hormuz carries around one-third of global seaborne fertiliser and one-quarter of seaborne oil, meaning the blockade is pushing up agricultural input costs worldwide. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned of a potential global food "catastrophe" if the disruption persists, estimating fertiliser prices could average 20 percent higher in the first half of 2026. Countries including India, Bangladesh, Egypt, Somalia and Kenya are considered most at risk. The World Food Programme has warned that nearly 45 million additional people could face acute food shortages if the conflict continues and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel.
Most analysts caution that the full economic impact has yet to materialise, since agricultural supply chains absorb shocks with a significant time lag. Global cereal stocks are at record levels, and food prices — while rising — remain about 11 percent below their 2022 peaks. Some economists argue that markets are more resilient than pessimists suggest, pointing to how they eventually recovered from the 2007–08 food crisis. But others warn that aggregate price indices mask genuine hardship in lower-income countries, where fuel and transport costs represent a far larger share of household spending — meaning that for families in cities like Dhaka, Cairo and Lagos, the squeeze on food budgets may already be very real.