Zambians went to the polls on Thursday in simultaneous presidential, parliamentary and local government elections, with incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema widely expected to secure a second five-year term. Polls opened at 6 a.m. local time, with results expected by Monday. A candidate must win more than 50% of votes cast to avoid a run-off between the top two contenders.

Hichilema, 64, first won the presidency in 2021 on his sixth attempt, defeating longtime rival Edgar Lungu in a landslide. He is running on his economic record, having steered Zambia — a copper-rich southern African nation of 22 million people — through a sovereign debt default in 2020 and a subsequent restructuring that helped restore economic growth, now projected at around five percent this year. His government also points to expanded free primary education, the hiring of thousands of nurses and teachers, and civil liberties reforms including the abolition of the death penalty. However, many voters say they have yet to feel these improvements in their daily lives. The removal of subsidies on electricity and fuel has raised household costs, and wages have not kept pace with prices — a central tension running through the campaign.

Hichilema's main challenger is Brian Mundubile, a 55-year-old lawyer and former member of the Patriotic Front, the party of Lungu. Mundubile only consolidated his position as the leading opposition candidate in May, giving him limited time to build a national campaign under his newly formed party. He has drawn large crowds in the Copperbelt — Zambia's mining heartland and a traditional opposition stronghold — as well as in eastern and northern provinces, and has sought to unite various anti-government factions. Analysts note, however, that the opposition's strength is undermined by internal divisions: in some constituencies, candidates from Mundubile's party and those from his running-mate's party are competing directly against each other.

The campaign has been marked by serious allegations of unfair play. Mundubile claims his team was denied permits to hold rallies, that his passport was confiscated for four months, and that police interfered with opposition events. He has also alleged the detention of opposition figures, journalists and bloggers. Civil society groups have separately raised concerns about restrictions on opposition gatherings, the use of cybersecurity laws against critical voices, and a late-breaking controversy over ballot-marking rules, after the electoral commission clarified that votes marked with something other than a cross could still be counted — a move critics linked to the ruling party's own campaign slogan about having "ticked" its promises. The government has denied accusations of repression. Zambia is rated "partly free" by Freedom House, which notes that while elections are held regularly, opposition parties face significant obstacles.

Voter turnout could prove decisive. Analysts point out that in urban centres such as Lusaka and the Copperbelt, voting can take many hours — potentially deterring informal workers who cannot afford to lose a day's income, particularly when polls suggest a likely Hichilema victory. Young voters, who mobilised strongly for Hichilema in 2021, may be less energised this time around. "If the opposition had rallied behind one candidate earlier, this would have been one of the toughest elections for the ruling party," said Lee Habasonda, a political science lecturer at the University of Zambia. With copper central to the global green-energy transition, the outcome will also be watched by international investors keen to see whether Zambia can convert its macroeconomic recovery into broader prosperity.