Global temperatures are overwhelmingly likely to remain at or near record levels through the rest of this decade, with the internationally agreed climate threshold set by the Paris Agreement likely to be breached repeatedly before 2031, the United Nations has warned. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), working with the United Kingdom's Met Office, published projections based on around 200 runs of 13 different climate models, painting a stark picture of accelerating warming in the years ahead.

There is a 91% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above the pre-industrial average of 1850–1900 — the threshold that the 2015 Paris climate accords identified as the preferred upper limit for long-term warming. An 86% chance exists that one of those years will surpass 2024, currently the hottest year on record at roughly 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. Annual temperatures between now and 2030 are projected to fall within a range of 1.3°C to 1.9°C above that baseline. Scientists are careful to note that 1.5°C is not a