The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast for the second time this year, citing the "lingering effects" of the energy shock caused by the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The global economy is now expected to grow 3 percent in 2026, down from the 3.1 percent projected in April and well below the 3.5 percent recorded in 2024–25. The IMF released the revised outlook on Wednesday, just as the United States renewed military strikes on Iranian targets for a second consecutive day.

The conflict has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that, before the war, facilitated roughly one-fifth of all global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas. Iran closed the strait and struck regional energy infrastructure in response to the US-Israel campaign, and tanker attacks this week have cast fresh doubt on the durability of a recent ceasefire. Maritime data showed only 41 verified transits through the strait on Tuesday, compared with around 130 daily crossings before the conflict began. Oil prices surged sharply after US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire "over" and the Pentagon launched further strikes — Brent crude, the main international benchmark, rose as much as 7 percent, briefly topping $79 a barrel. Analysts cautioned that the price spike reflected just how fragile market assumptions about the conflict had been.

The IMF's outlook is not entirely bleak. A booming wave of investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies is acting as a partial counterweight to the energy shock, and growth is forecast to rebound to 3.4 percent in 2027. Global inflation, however, is expected to climb to 4.7 percent in 2026, up from 4.1 percent in 2025, before easing to 3.9 percent the following year, largely driven by elevated commodity prices. The IMF's forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will begin reopening in mid-July, with conditions gradually returning to pre-war levels by March 2027 — an assumption that appeared increasingly uncertain as strikes resumed.

Among major economies, the United States is projected to record the strongest growth among advanced economies at 2.3 percent, while the Eurozone is forecast to expand by just 0.9 percent, the United Kingdom by 1 percent, Canada by 1.1 percent, and Japan by 0.6 percent. China, classified by the IMF as an emerging economy, is expected to grow 4.6 percent. Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF's research department, described the global outlook as being shaped by "two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions" and warned that overnight developments illustrated the "uncertainty and risks" surrounding the projections. The fund cautioned that any renewed disruption to energy supplies or further deterioration in geopolitical tensions could weaken the global economy beyond current forecasts.