New research from the Centre for European Reform (a London-based think tank) shows that Brexit has depressed overall UK exports to the EU by 12%, with goods exports down 16% and services exports down 7% compared to what they would have been had the UK remained a member. The study, by economists John Springford and Anton Spisak, attributes roughly 10 percentage points of the total decline to leaving the single market — not the customs union — pointing to regulatory costs such as new certification procedures and compliance checks as the dominant barrier. The findings complicate debate within the UK's Labour Party over how closely to realign with the EU, as the research suggests that rejoining the customs union alone would deliver only modest trade gains and would do nothing to help the hardest-hit sectors, which include finance, insurance, travel, chemicals, and agrifood.