Australia's political right is in turmoil following a landmark Newspoll that placed the populist One Nation party ahead of both Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition on primary votes for the first time, triggering a wave of realignment among conservative forces and alarm within the Labor government.

The Newspoll, conducted June 1–4 from a sample of 1,240 voters, gave One Nation 31% of the primary vote — up four points since the previous poll taken after the May 12 budget — with Labor at 30%, the Coalition at 18%, and the Greens at 11%. It is a record high for One Nation in Newspoll and the Coalition's worst result in months. The poll corroborates two earlier surveys that had already placed One Nation in first position. No two-party-preferred estimate was published, though analysts noted Labor would still lead under that model. Separately, a Victorian state poll showed One Nation on 25%, just two points behind the Coalition and well ahead of Labor's slumping 23%, while a Queensland poll placed One Nation at 24% and rising sharply.

The surge has forced an open debate within the Liberal Party — the centre-right party that, alongside the rural Nationals, forms the traditional conservative bloc — about whether to embrace or resist One Nation, which is led by veteran populist Pauline Hanson and draws support with anti-immigration and anti-establishment rhetoric. Newly elected Liberal president and former prime minister Tony Abbott publicly backed preference deals with One Nation, arguing that