Russia has transferred nuclear warheads to storage sites in Belarus and conducted its largest nuclear military exercises since the end of the Cold War, mobilising some 64,000 troops, more than 70 warships, 13 submarines, and hundreds of missile systems over three days. The Russian and Belarusian defence ministries released footage of military vehicles moving rockets to launch positions, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that the manoeuvres were always "a signal" — an unusually candid admission given that strategic exercises are typically described as routine and purely defensive in nature.
The exercises involved Iskander-M mobile missile systems, which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, as well as Belarusian Su-25 ground-attack aircraft. Russia also released footage of intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonic Tsirkon missiles being test-fired, underlining that the drills covered both tactical and strategic nuclear capabilities. Belarus, a landlocked country bordering Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Latvia, received Russian tactical nuclear weapons for the first time in 2023. While Minsk hosts the weapons, analysts are clear that Belarus cannot launch them independently — all decisions remain with Moscow. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko declared that his country now possesses nuclear weapons and is "ready in every possible way to defend the fatherland," though experts widely regard his personal claims of launch authority as a bluff.
The timing of the exercises is widely seen as deliberate. Russian forces have suffered significant losses in southeastern Ukraine, and analysts point to domestic pressure on the Kremlin to project strength. Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov had already warned last week that Moscow could not ignore what it characterised as NATO's nuclear build-up, pointing specifically to a recent joint French-Polish exercise simulating nuclear strike scenarios on NATO's eastern flank. The exercises also coincided with President Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing, projecting a united front with China — though the summit failed to deliver a long-sought gas pipeline deal.
The backdrop to the nuclear signalling is a sharply deteriorating security climate on NATO's eastern border. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — small Baltic states that were formerly part of the Soviet Union and joined NATO in 2004 — have reported a surge in drone incursions. A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over Estonia earlier this week, and the Lithuanian capital Vilnius briefly evacuated its president and prime minister to an underground shelter after a separate drone alarm. Western officials believe most of the errant drones are Ukrainian, diverted into NATO airspace by Russian electronic jamming. Moscow, however, accuses the Baltic states of allowing Ukraine to use their territory to attack Russian cities and energy infrastructure — a charge NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called "ridiculous." Russia's ambassador to the United Nations went further, suggesting NATO membership would not shield the Baltic states from Russian retaliation.
Why this matters: the deployment of warheads to field locations near NATO's border represents an escalation beyond the permanent basing arrangement established in 2023. NATO has pledged that any Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine would provoke a "devastating" response from the alliance, and European officials have been careful to project calm alongside vigilance — what one Polish analyst called a "war of nerves." With arms control treaties effectively defunct following the US withdrawal from the last remaining nuclear agreement in February, and with no new framework yet on the horizon, analysts warn that the combination of heightened rhetoric, reduced guardrails, and nuclear posturing raises the long-term risk of a new global arms race.