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South Korea·North Korea·United States·Nuclear·Diplomacy

South Korea estimates North Korea has 80–120 nuclear warheads, well above Trump's figure

Thursday, 20 August 2026, 06:23 · 3 min read

South Korea's Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back told parliament on Thursday that North Korea is estimated to possess between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads — a range significantly higher than the figure of 57 cited by U.S. President Donald Trump just one day earlier. The disclosure, made during a parliamentary committee session in Seoul, is notable for its specificity: both South Korean and U.S. officials have historically avoided stating precise numbers for North Korea's nuclear arsenal, in part because doing so risks being interpreted as formal recognition of Pyongyang as a nuclear-armed state.

Trump gave the figure of 57 "very powerful nuclear weapons" on Wednesday while speaking to reporters at the White House, also announcing that he expected to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un later this year. It was the first time Trump had cited a specific number for the North's stockpile. Ahn acknowledged the discrepancy diplomatically, saying the two countries' estimates "appear somewhat different," while declining to assess the U.S. president's remarks directly. He later walked back the precision of his own figures, clarifying that the 80–120 range came from private research organisations rather than official South Korean military intelligence, and that his ministry could not formally confirm the numbers.

Both Seoul and Washington maintain a long-standing policy of not recognising North Korea — a heavily sanctioned, isolated state that conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 — as a legitimate nuclear power, in line with their commitment to the Korean Peninsula's denuclearisation. When pressed by lawmakers on whether South Korea acknowledged Pyongyang's nuclear capability, Ahn was unequivocal: "We can never officially acknowledge that." He also reaffirmed that South Korea would neither develop its own nuclear weapons nor seek the deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on its soil, continuing to rely instead on the American "nuclear umbrella."

The nuclear stockpile discussion comes amid a broader diplomatic shuffle. Trump recently ordered a scaling back of joint U.S.–South Korean military exercises, calling them "hostile" to North Korea in an apparent bid to create goodwill ahead of a potential summit. The response from Pyongyang was cool. Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of Kim Jong Un and a senior figure in the North Korean leadership, said the reduced drills remained "provocative and aggressive" regardless of their shorter duration, and dismissed them as any meaningful gesture. She said she was unaware of direct contacts between Trump and her brother, though she described their personal relationship as "excellent."

The possibility of renewed U.S.–North Korea talks recalls the diplomatic openings of 2018 and 2019, when Trump and Kim held three unprecedented summits — in Singapore, Hanoi, and at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the heavily fortified buffer separating the two Koreas — before negotiations collapsed over disagreements on sanctions relief and the scope of denuclearisation. Meanwhile, along the DMZ itself, tensions remain elevated: South Korea's defence ministry told parliament that North Korea has been reinforcing its side of the border with new fencing, landmines, and advanced weapons systems, activities Seoul has criticised as violations of the 1953 armistice agreement, though the UN Command overseeing that agreement has assessed the buildups as defensive in nature.

Sources
Channel NewsAsiaSouth Korea estimates North Korea has up to 120 nuclear warheads, far above Trump's figure ↗︎The HinduSouth Korea estimates North Korea has up to 120 nuclear warheads, far above Trump’s figure ↗︎Yonhap(2nd LD) N. Korea typically estimated to have 80-120 nuclear weapons: defense minister ↗︎
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